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- EVTOL will start to grow from the current nothing, but will not be a revolutionary transport mechanism by 2030. People will be investing in it and trying to m
by PaulRobinson 7y ago
- EVTOL will start to grow from the current nothing, but will not be a revolutionary transport mechanism by 2030. People will be investing in it and trying to make it work though, but even the bullish EVTOL investors like Uber will be struggling to make it work as globally as expected.
- I think autonomous cars will be much further along, but only in certain parts of the World - more likely to see them in Monaco than in Mumbai or Manchester, not for economic reasons but because of road and typical weather conditions.
- Most "liberal democracies" will slide to the right for a prolonged period of time. There is no appetite for a move to the left, as much as many of us think it's "obvious" that people will eventually see through right-wing messaging or will die off naturally.
- The USSR will be back in all but name. It arguably already is, but by 2030 we'll know what a post-Putin World might look like, and it will not involve more democracy in Russia. The majority of Russians will be fine with this.
- India in the '20s will be like China in the '10s, but greener.
- China itself will try to go big on green tech, but will struggle to economically justify it until consumers show they're prepared to pay for it (which they never have to date).
- I am quite bearish on the EU post-Brexit. I think France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal will all face a rise in anti-EU sentiment amongst voters.
- Meanwhile the UK will be a strange mix of striving for a new Industrial Revolution with a tax and political environment that reminds people of Singapore.
- Most software engineers will spend a bigger proportion of their time taking off the shelf ML/AI tools and plugging them together and facing a business problem. I think a "Ruby on Rails of ML/AI" is quite likely.
- I think the companies that have spent the '10s trading on personal data (Facebook, Google, etc.) will struggle with that business model as the audience becomes more aware and careful with their private data.
- Bitcoin is going to muddle along, but even if most of the problems with it (transaction rate, power usage, etc.), get fixed then most people are now so sceptical of crypto coins, they will all struggle to get public mind share.
- Meat consumption will be way, way down. Maybe below 3/4 what it is today, driven by environmentalism, animal rights awareness and a growing landscape of decent competitors.
- At least one major metro or municipal area will have gone carbon neutral, and at least one country will be on target to be entirely carbon neutral by 2035.