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1. Google and Facebook struggle to keep their power position and will be stripped down for many reasons. Microsoft and Amazon will capture the spoils of war bec
by hummel 7y ago
1. Google and Facebook struggle to keep their power position and will be stripped down for many reasons. Microsoft and Amazon will capture the spoils of war becoming larger than they are today.
2. No AGI yet, but some AI companies will create overnight data-driven monopolies, same as Private Equity did on the '80s. These early companies will start as B2B consulting/services until they have enough data, experience, and models. Then they will stop servicing others and start disrupting every industry and vertical they could. Same as PE, it becomes an arms race that will eliminate any competition. To keep their power position, Data Science becomes an esoteric-obscure knowledge, spawning another "AI Winter".
3. We will see last-mile and self-driving operational for logistics purposes. Driving will become a privilege, only rich people would allow driving their cars (electric or gas). Others would need to use ride-sharing or public transit. Fewer Toyotas, more Bugatti.
4. There will be significant advances in research in many fields, technology leverage scientific output. But academia works (quantum) will not translate on real-world applications.
5. European Union as we know will disappear on the next economic recession, European countries will recover their historical relations while eastern countries will see a raise on nationalisms/violent uprises and never-ending migration crisis.
6. China will suffer their first economic recession, taking down the older elites and spawning a war for political control creating instability and broken the Belt and Road initiative. Russia will face another 1990-moment between powers and factions inside the country.
7. Offline will be the new wave. Online relations were no longer trusted or authentic. Back to the real world, real experiences, moments and friends. Ibiza is the center of the civilized world.
8. Extreme personalization of payments and lending, an era of rent-to-use, pay month-to-month, get an instant credit will go down to basic needs like water or toilet paper. Finance will extract value from all economy layers. Only rich people own things.
9. Global emissions and pollution will be reduced significative in rich countries thanks to advanced technologies (Switzerland, Germany ..etc). On the other side, people from Third-world countries will die because of pollution.
10. Flying Cars for Rich people. No Mars yet, but increased interest in space exploration.
Hello future me! I hope you did it well in this decade.
- bmsleight_ 7y ago> 3. Driving will become a privilege Agree - insurance of human non-assisted driving vs some computer self-driving (level 3/4/5) differential will make it too expensive for human non-assisted driving. Data will drive the insurance costs.