the debt cycle will come to an end: inflation will pick up significantly, interest rates will be higher, there will be a great deleveraging for governments, com

the debt cycle will come to an end: inflation will pick up significantly, interest rates will be higher, there will be a great deleveraging for governments, companies and private individuals. The US won't default, but it will devalue the dollar. US debt (both bonds and unfunded obligations from Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security) and the $1tn/y deficit will begin to matter. Higher taxes, high unemployment, social unrest ensue. Passively invested money (through ETFs) will cause a stampede to leave the market. Volatility will be back. The long running bull markets in bonds and stocks will come to an end. Pension funds will lose a lot of money. Not necessarily a crash, but a long, painful decline. - oil will hit $120+/barrel - Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft will come under a lot of anti-trust scrutiny - Germany will have a chancellor from the Green Party - AOC will become US president - mobile internet will come from satellites in the US (Apple, SpaceX) - Java, C and C++ are still going strong - large layoffs in retail, automotive and banking - VR will become mainstream - hacks will begin to matter financially, unlike the incidents at Target, Sony at Equifax - Deepl will be acquired by Microsoft - Twitter will be acquired by Alphabet - a move out of large cities: as remote work becomes more widespread (and fewer people work physically) people use more affordable living options outside of metropolitan areas. telemedicine, pharmaceutical eCommerce and faster internet connections will help. Shared satellite offices will take off as a result. - the UI of HN will stay the same - Gamestop and J.C. Penney will declare bankruptcy