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1. Renewables are dominant source of energy. Every new house is energy positive. Wind and solar are primary for industrial sources. 2. ICE vehicles are quaint.

1. Renewables are dominant source of energy. Every new house is energy positive. Wind and solar are primary for industrial sources. 2. ICE vehicles are quaint. New electric vehicles sold overtakes ICE vehicles sometime around 2027 - 2029. 3. Autonomous vehicles L4/L5 are still 'just around the corner' 4. Ubiquitous Gigabit wifi/cellular/sat data across most of the world. 5. Masses still don't care about privacy. 6. Not much change in top tech companies - FAANG still around and maintain their leadership in tech domains as of now for the most part. 7. Android has been replaced with Fuchsia with Fuchsia being able to run APKs built for android. Phone apps are mostly a combination of WASM apps with native UI. Most non-tech people are unaware as usual. 8. Atleast a couple of cities in the world come to the brink of disaster/or become unlivable due to climate change (most likely in India/China). At least one major war due to climate change. 9. Workloads are all massively parallelized; low end desktop cpu parts start with 32 cores. 10. WASM adoption skyrockets. In 2030, OS is almost immaterial since most of the core functionality is provided by WASM payloads; OS is only used to paint native UIs (for which there still isn't a good cross platform solution) 11. Deepfakes are ubiquitous; Audio/Video evidence is no longer accepted; A lot of companies pour money into creating verfiably unmodified video/audio - but it isn't solved yet.

bmsleight_ 7y ago
> 2. electric vehicles sold overtakes ICE vehicles sometime around 2027 - 2029. I think the tipping point is much earlier. Fast chargers station are becoming normal in the UK. I think the tipping point is 2025. Alas I have not found a share/bet/option were I can back this tipping point and put my money where my mouth is.
rtx 7y ago
Agree on electric vehicles and gigabit everywhere. Bigger impact of this would be on Arab countries, China and India.
vcoelho 7y ago
> 2. ICE vehicles are quaint. New electric vehicles sold overtakes ICE vehicles sometime around 2027 - 2029. Maybe USA and Europe. South America definitely not.
im3w1l 7y ago
> 2. ICE vehicles are quaint. New electric vehicles sold overtakes ICE vehicles sometime around 2027 - 2029. There will be a long lag between majority of sales are electric and majority of cars on the road are electric. ICE will still be majority on the road by the end of 2029. For this reason, ICE will not be quaint.
ShamelessC 7y ago
> 7. Android has been replaced with Fuchsia with Fuchsia being able to run APKs built for android. Phone apps are mostly a combination of WASM apps with native UI. Most non-tech people are unaware as usual. Can you expand on this? I know Google has Fuchsia as a backup plan but they're pretty hard to predict with "replacement" tech. I'm mostly interested in your take on WASM though. I agree WASM probably goes heavy into the mainstream in 3-4 years and then becomes ubiquitous before 2030. But it also seems that Google and Apple would both want to prevent people from being able to escape their walled gardens on Android and iOS. Doesn't WASM disrupt that notion? Wouldn't they be more likely to use their power of monopoly to prevent this from happening on their platforms?

bmsleight_ 7y ago

> 2. electric vehicles sold overtakes ICE vehicles sometime around 2027 - 2029. I think the tipping point is much earlier. Fast chargers station are becoming normal in the UK. I think the tipping point is 2025. Alas I have not found a share/bet/option were I can back this tipping point and put my money where my mouth is.

rtx 7y ago

Agree on electric vehicles and gigabit everywhere. Bigger impact of this would be on Arab countries, China and India.

vcoelho 7y ago

> 2. ICE vehicles are quaint. New electric vehicles sold overtakes ICE vehicles sometime around 2027 - 2029. Maybe USA and Europe. South America definitely not.

im3w1l 7y ago

> 2. ICE vehicles are quaint. New electric vehicles sold overtakes ICE vehicles sometime around 2027 - 2029. There will be a long lag between majority of sales are electric and majority of cars on the road are electric. ICE will still be majority on the road by the end of 2029. For this reason, ICE will not be quaint.

ShamelessC 7y ago

> 7. Android has been replaced with Fuchsia with Fuchsia being able to run APKs built for android. Phone apps are mostly a combination of WASM apps with native UI. Most non-tech people are unaware as usual. Can you expand on this? I know Google has Fuchsia as a backup plan but they're pretty hard to predict with "replacement" tech. I'm mostly interested in your take on WASM though. I agree WASM probably goes heavy into the mainstream in 3-4 years and then becomes ubiquitous before 2030. But it also seems that Google and Apple would both want to prevent people from being able to escape their walled gardens on Android and iOS. Doesn't WASM disrupt that notion? Wouldn't they be more likely to use their power of monopoly to prevent this from happening on their platforms?