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OK these are some a very long predictions: - At least one East Asian country out of {singapore, south korea, japan, china (ROC or PRC)} legalizes Cannabis. -
by dnautics 7y ago
OK these are some a very long predictions:
- At least one East Asian country out of {singapore, south korea, japan, china (ROC or PRC)} legalizes Cannabis.
- Microsoft extends the dominance it began in late 2010 decade. C# and F# eclipse Java as enterprise programming solutions.
- Google runs into some major trouble and loses considerable market share; the biggest tumble comes on the heels of an internal, employee-led revolt or schism.
- While we're at it, Kubernetes goes out of style, replaced by something out of Microsoft (that is not on our radar at the moment).
- The US is in the first five nations with population greater than 50M to meet its Paris Accord CO2 targets, despite having left the Paris Accord.
- Early 2020s: Brexit unexpectedly results in the UK narrowly escaping the worst of a major economic collapse in Europe, led by or concurrent with the collapse or bailout of Deutche Bank. Of course this spreads to the rest of the world, but if we say put it in quantitative terms the relative, GDP normalized damage to the UK is less than the damage to each of: Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands, and Denmark.
- Quantum computing goes through an explosive growth in qubits for the early half of the decade, topping out at around 10,000-100,000 qubits, followed by 2-3 year linear phase, and then diminishing-return, sublinear improvements through the close of the decade. Researchers begin talking about a 'QC winter' like which we saw AI go through.
- NASA disqualifies the Boeing Starliner from flying after astronauts refuse to man it.
Aside from one time when I correctly predicted my coworker's house would be under a volcano in 15 years, I am typically very bad at long timescale predictions and much better at short term out-of-the-odds predictions, so we shall see.
- badfrog 7y agoIs F# usage growing at all?
- shaklee3 7y agoMicrosoft already has a public kubernetes competitor that (comparatively) nobody uses: https://github.com/microsoft/service-fabric https://github.com/microsoft/service-fabric
- daxfohl 7y agoAnd the guy who created k8s originally is at Microsoft now, so I'd be interested to see how it all falls out if this prediction comes true.
- shaklee3 7y agoIt looks like this project is dead at this point, with the last commit 6 months ago.
- daxfohl 7y agoNo, they have a full hallway of people working on it and job openings on the careers site, and a good chunk of Azure core services use it with new services still being built on it. Supposedly it's pretty nice, since if you make sure to deploy your instances to different AZs, it takes care of synching all your in-memory data between instances and you can treat all of your data as in-memory data. You don't need a separate data layer, and supposedly everything is robust because you've got resiliency across AZs. At least that's what I've heard, though I've never used it and am curious about the actual resiliency and race handling.
- shaklee3 7y agoDo you know why the oss project is stagnant? It would seem if they wanted it to gain traction they would use that repo as the main one. Someone else mentioned service fabric was for stateful services, but at this point stateful services in kubernetes are mature.
- syshum 7y ago>>Kubernetes goes out of style, replaced by something out of Microsoft (that is not on our radar at the moment). and that something will be more convoluted than Kube to ensure you only use it as a Service (on Azure ofcourse) not as a OnPrem solution.
- bryanwb 7y agoThe UK has never been part of the European Monetary Union so Brexit doesn't make it any more isolated from EU's financial system than it was before.
- kingosticks 7y agoI'm only playing devil's advocate, but potentially wouldn't separate trade deals with non-EU countries increase the isolation a little?
- daxfohl 7y agoI was just going to write a similar QC prediction. I think it'll be much like the moon landings: a huge race between US and China, a "giant leap for mankind" when we have a single general-purpose QC with a few thousand qubits and ECC (which will be sooner than many expect), then a few more trips over the subsequent decade, and then finally the realization that we have no particular reason to be there given the cost.
- weinzierl 7y ago> Early 2020s: Brexit unexpectedly results in the UK narrowly escaping [..] I had this thought too and reading it explicitly spelled out by someone else is extremely chilling. Apparently this is no only my crazy idea. Maybe no better time than now to buy some property in the UK, move there and try to get a passport?