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Some mutually-exclusive points here, but I'm not expecting 100% accuracy anyway :P * The top 100 entertainment, tech, and consumable brands are all subsidiarie

Some mutually-exclusive points here, but I'm not expecting 100% accuracy anyway :P * The top 100 entertainment, tech, and consumable brands are all subsidiaries of Disney, Alphabet, or Nestle respectively * Owning things becomes a niche; rental / X-as-a-service becomes the default for everything from toothbrushes to pets. Kids born in 2030 might live to be 100 and never own anything. * 25% unemployment due to automation - not due to strong AI, just steady incremental changes (eg how McD's has already replaced human till operators with "select your meal from a tablet then swipe your payment card") * Either we make a conscious effort as a species to reduce inequality (high taxes and UBI); OR inequality spirals out of control and we get a bloody civil war between the haves and the have-nots. * "WASM blob rendering to HTML Canvas" becomes the #1 desktop app deployment method, accessibility and ad-blocking suffer (Everyone has forgotten the lessons learned from Flash) * Eventually all desktop / mobile use-cases replaced with stadia-like remote apps; accessibility and ad-blocking suffer * I'd LIKE it if ad-blocking became so widespread and effective that we're collectively forced to build an effective micropayment system, and people go back to paying for goods and services with money instead of personal information, but I'll predict that that doesn't happen. If ad-blocking does still exist in any effective form, then ads will merge with content (product placement etc) * AI-based ad-blocking to blank-out company logos wherever they appear, in whatever context * Global temperatures don't just continue rising, they accelerate * Poor security on IoT devices directly leads to deaths (eg overloading cheap electronics enough to start a fire) * Lennart Poettering invents a filesystem. It is buggy as hell, but has such useful features that everyone adopts it and the community makes it stable

will4274 7y ago
I'll disagree with you on this one: 25% unemployment due to automation - not due to strong AI, just steady incremental changes (eg how McD's has already replaced human till operators with "select your meal from a tablet then swipe your payment card") I'll predict the exact opposite. The decade will include one recession that will be called a "X bubble" and take ~3 years to recover from where X is something everybody uses (housing, tech, etc.). Rich people and corporations will be blamed, but no meaningful economic reforms will be passed. Despite continually dire predictions from left-leaning politicans and internet economists about unemployment and UBI, recession unemployment will sit at 11% and non-recession unemployment will sit around 5% (as measured by the U3 in the United States). Unemployment will never exceed 15% for the duration of the decade. Though the labor force participation rate will drop (as boomers continue to retire) the rate of drop will begin to level out towards the end of the decade. This drop will lead to the first sustained real (inflated adjusted) increase in wages since the 90s. See you in 2030 :) Edit: also, UBI will not be passed into law in any state or federally.
Havoc 7y ago
>people go back to paying for goods and services with money instead of personal information, Downside of this potential knowledge gap between the haves and have nots

will4274 7y ago

I'll disagree with you on this one: 25% unemployment due to automation - not due to strong AI, just steady incremental changes (eg how McD's has already replaced human till operators with "select your meal from a tablet then swipe your payment card") I'll predict the exact opposite. The decade will include one recession that will be called a "X bubble" and take ~3 years to recover from where X is something everybody uses (housing, tech, etc.). Rich people and corporations will be blamed, but no meaningful economic reforms will be passed. Despite continually dire predictions from left-leaning politicans and internet economists about unemployment and UBI, recession unemployment will sit at 11% and non-recession unemployment will sit around 5% (as measured by the U3 in the United States). Unemployment will never exceed 15% for the duration of the decade. Though the labor force participation rate will drop (as boomers continue to retire) the rate of drop will begin to level out towards the end of the decade. This drop will lead to the first sustained real (inflated adjusted) increase in wages since the 90s. See you in 2030 :) Edit: also, UBI will not be passed into law in any state or federally.

Havoc 7y ago

>people go back to paying for goods and services with money instead of personal information, Downside of this potential knowledge gap between the haves and have nots