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This comment from the recent thread reflecting on HNers’ predictions from 2010 made me realize how little can change in a decade: https://news.ycombinator.com/
by QuixoticQuibit 7y ago
This comment from the recent thread reflecting on HNers’ predictions from 2010 made me realize how little can change in a decade:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21942143 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21942143
IMO, OP’s predictions may be safe, but that says more about reality than OP’s lack of imagination.
- xixixao 7y agoBut note that looking for predictions that worked out leads you to “safe” predictions. I would like to see a list of things that were big that no one predicted. (Uber?)
- AznHisoka 7y agoYou shouldn’t make outrageous predictions if you don’t sincerely believe they will become true though. Otherwise you will get what we see in TV everyday. a bunch of people making outrageous predictions just to sound exciting. Then when the prediction comes true, they will claim all the credit. when it doesn’t, they will say “haha I was just kidding of course”
- yellowstuff 7y agoPeople should state predictions where their view of the probabilities differs from conventional wisdom. EG, if most people think there's a ~20% chance that level 5 SDCs will be available in 2030 and you think it's a 1% chance then that's a valid prediction, even though it's not that exciting to predict something won't happen. If people think there's a 0% chance of hoverboards and you think it's 10% then that's an interesting prediction, even though you still expect it not to happen. Any serious prediction should include a probability estimate that differs from conventional probability estimates. Almost not one actually does this, because everyone is doing it wrong.
- distances 7y agoThanks for the link, interesting read. Almost all predictions were spectacularly wrong.