My long list of predictions! Writing this was fun, I'm going to have to remember to look at this comment in 10 years! Politics: US political situation will be

My long list of predictions! Writing this was fun, I'm going to have to remember to look at this comment in 10 years! Politics: US political situation will be significantly less stable/more autocratic than today. People will lose most of their faith that the government is fair. Mainstream news will be completely non-trustworthy. In general, companies will consolidate. No meaningful anti-trust action will be taken. The biggest companies will become pseudo-government entities. Facebook (surveillance) and Disney (media/propaganda) will the most notable new entrants. A socialist candidate with a lot of momentum in the US will get buried in an obviously corrupt/illegal way. Nothing will be done. Situation in North Korea will be the same. Economy: Areas of the southeastern US will be uninsurable and hit by extreme hurricanes yearly, causing a slow internal migration as people move away and are not replaced. The poor will be left behind, and we'll have multiple Katrina-like natural disasters. Trade between countries will decrease. Especially trade between US/China. No progress on an international climate change agreement. Little progress on emissions -- most progress will come bottom-up from ICE cars being phased out. Latter '20s will see a new robust pro-nuclear movement. New nuke plants will be planned (not completed) by 2030. A minor resurgence of manufacturing in the US. Tech: ML/AI: No self driving cars, even by 2030. Freeway lanekeeping will be robust, though, and an option on economy cars by 2026. ML will hit the wall. It'll turn out that even a boatload of data will not help solve most big problems that are being attempted now. Research will pivot to hybrid methods. By extension, people will completely stop talking about "AI." It'll be somewhat embarrassing to talk about the singularity, or general purpose AI. Transportation: SpaceX will succeed, launching things into space will be 1/10/kg the current cost to LEO. Battery tech will be better (not revolutionary, just a bit better). We'll have autonomous last-mile drone delivery in large urban areas by ~2026. The drones will be electric and resemble a plane/helicopter hybrid. Planes for people will still need dino jet fuel, though. Drone delivery will make delivered food yet cheaper. Some new developments in hip big cities will do away with full kitchens. More electric than ICE cars will be sold by 2025. Gas stations won't be dead yet, but there'll be talk of how to phase out ICE cars in 2030. FAANG: Amazon will stagnate, multiple meaningful competitors will pop up in the online retail space. Ride share companies (uber/lyft) will go bust in the mid '20s. They'll restructure with a small fraction of the valuation they have now. Google will stagnate. Facebook will compete far more with Google than they do now, and they will largely win, with facebook ads not on facebook. Microsoft will have significant success in VR, web services, and consumer hardware. Facebook will continue to be relevant. Any new competitor in the social media space (there will be a few) will be acquired/crushed. People will talk about FB having too much power, but nothing will be done because they'll have such strong ties to government. Apple: The iPhone will still be a big money-maker, but Apple will see tremendous success in the '20s from the health space. Its market cap will 1.5x or 2x from selling health-related devices and services -- mostly the apple watch, but some more wearable health devices, too. I'll be wild and say Apple will launch a hospital + health insurance operation. It'll be expensive but the service will be impeccable and it'll sync with all your apps and devices. Wearing an apple watch will be mandatory to keep a subscription. Health: Alzheimer's will not be cured, nor will we get close. The big medical advance will be wearable/sensor technology. Innovation will come from medical device startups, not incumbents, who will play fast and loose with medical device rules. The FDA will struggle to keep up, and regulations on medical devices will be loosened. Type 1 Diabetes will be functionally cured, via insulin pump and glucose monitoring. Tiny, accurate, implantable (subcutaneous) glucose sensors will last for months/years, charged wirelessly. Fast acting insulin will be cheap, $40-$60 for a month's supply, instead of the $300 that it is now... (alright, this is wishful thinking) Misc: A Bitcoin will be <$100 by 2030. Oil will reach $200/barrel by the late '20s. Skeumorphic design will be THE hot thing. The big fashion of the later '20s will be earth-toned & naturalistic -- like the 70s. It'll be embarassing to be a fan of Kanye West, although he'll continue making music. HN will be exactly the same. Same design, same commenter snark. ;)