6 ms·

I think Microsoft was the biggest surprise. In 2010 MacBooks were starting to become very popular, and it looked like Microsoft’s monopoly on consumer computin

by npo9 7y ago

I think Microsoft was the biggest surprise. In 2010 MacBooks were starting to become very popular, and it looked like Microsoft’s monopoly on consumer computing was coming to an end. It was common to think Microsoft was on a long decline in 2010.

koboll 7y ago
It's interesting how none of the commenters envisioned Microsoft repositioning itself to adapt to technological and business trends. Everyone seems to have thought they would either fight them and lose, or contract to becoming an IBM-like consulting business.
- scarface74 7y ago
  Also, look how much things changed between 2000 and 2010 compared to 2010 to 2020. Facebook didn’t exist. Apple was “beleaguered”. Google was in its infancy and Yahoo was still dominant (before the crash) Microsoft was seen as unassailable. Amazon was mostly just an interesting book seller. They were just getting into CDs and hadn’t even made the deal with Toys R Us yet. Netflix was struggling against BlockBuster renting DVDs. AOL was still dominant.
  - npo9 7y ago
    Sure, the large players stayed about the same in the last decade but we also found some new large players. The entire app ecosystems was in the earliest infancy in 2010. AWS was in its infancy. Slack wasn’t released.
    - scarface74 7y ago
      Slack isn’t a “large player” they are nowhere near being profitable and are nowhere in the same league as Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google or Microsoft. The app ecosystem was growing like crazy in 2010. It was a year and a half into “there is an app for that”. Facebook had already pivoted to being big in mobile. The same can be said about Uber. Once the companies have a profitable and sustainable business model that doesn’t involve burning cash then they can be considered a major player.
      - xmprt 7y ago
        Regardless of profitability I think people are spending a lot more money on the internet today as they were 10 years ago. Subscription services, gig economy, and online retail have exploded in the last 10 years in a way that I don't think many people predicted.
        scarface74 7y ago
        Everyone saw online retail exploding by 2010. Amazon was already big and growing, Barnes and Noble was already struggling against Amazon and Apple/iTunes was the number one music retailer as bricks and mortar music retailers had started to close. By 2010, streaming services were big, Apple was selling movies and TV shows digitally and had already started removing DVD drives from its computers.
  - unnouinceput 7y ago
    Also Kodak was still king of photography. On decline but still king in 2000. Who'd thought in just 5 to 10 years would've become a nobody?
    - manishjhawar 7y ago
      And Nokia as well...
kccqzy 7y ago
But nobody would quite imagine that Microsoft didn't control an iota of mobile computing operating system.
- dehrmann 7y ago
  Even after buying Nokia's phone business.
- scarface74 7y ago
  Honestly it doesn’t matter. It came out in the Oracle trial that Google only made $23 billion in profit from Android from its inception to the start of the trial and t still has to pay Apple a reported $8 billion a year to be the default search engine for iOS. Apple has made a lot more in mobile from Google than Google has made from Android. For awhile, MS was making more in patent fees from Android OEMs than Google was making in licensing and advertising. Losing mobile was the best thing that could happen to MS so it could focus on Azure and making Office ubiquitous- where the real money is.
  - harikb 7y ago
    > still has to pay Apple a reported $8 billion a year to be the default search engine for iOS. That is not the way to think about it - Imagine if Android didn't exist or faltered like Symbian, RIM, Windows Mobile etc. Google would have been paying way more than 8 billion. Android is definitely worth more than the money accounted towards it.
    - scarface74 7y ago
      Not really. The Android market is really not worth that much. Statistically it’s made up of consumers who aren’t willing to spend that much compared to iOS owners. The high end non Chinese Android market is minuscule. They just aren’t as attractive as iOS users to advertisers.
      - Semaphor 7y ago
        Only slightly related, but is it the same in EU? Unlike the USA, Android has a much higher market share here.

by npo9 7y ago

koboll 7y ago

It's interesting how none of the commenters envisioned Microsoft repositioning itself to adapt to technological and business trends. Everyone seems to have thought they would either fight them and lose, or contract to becoming an IBM-like consulting business.

scarface74 7y ago
Also, look how much things changed between 2000 and 2010 compared to 2010 to 2020. Facebook didn’t exist. Apple was “beleaguered”. Google was in its infancy and Yahoo was still dominant (before the crash) Microsoft was seen as unassailable. Amazon was mostly just an interesting book seller. They were just getting into CDs and hadn’t even made the deal with Toys R Us yet. Netflix was struggling against BlockBuster renting DVDs. AOL was still dominant.
- npo9 7y ago
  Sure, the large players stayed about the same in the last decade but we also found some new large players. The entire app ecosystems was in the earliest infancy in 2010. AWS was in its infancy. Slack wasn’t released.
  - scarface74 7y ago
    Slack isn’t a “large player” they are nowhere near being profitable and are nowhere in the same league as Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google or Microsoft. The app ecosystem was growing like crazy in 2010. It was a year and a half into “there is an app for that”. Facebook had already pivoted to being big in mobile. The same can be said about Uber. Once the companies have a profitable and sustainable business model that doesn’t involve burning cash then they can be considered a major player.
    - xmprt 7y ago
      Regardless of profitability I think people are spending a lot more money on the internet today as they were 10 years ago. Subscription services, gig economy, and online retail have exploded in the last 10 years in a way that I don't think many people predicted.
      - scarface74 7y ago
        Everyone saw online retail exploding by 2010. Amazon was already big and growing, Barnes and Noble was already struggling against Amazon and Apple/iTunes was the number one music retailer as bricks and mortar music retailers had started to close. By 2010, streaming services were big, Apple was selling movies and TV shows digitally and had already started removing DVD drives from its computers.
- unnouinceput 7y ago
  Also Kodak was still king of photography. On decline but still king in 2000. Who'd thought in just 5 to 10 years would've become a nobody?
  - manishjhawar 7y ago
    And Nokia as well...

kccqzy 7y ago

But nobody would quite imagine that Microsoft didn't control an iota of mobile computing operating system.

dehrmann 7y ago
Even after buying Nokia's phone business.
scarface74 7y ago
Honestly it doesn’t matter. It came out in the Oracle trial that Google only made $23 billion in profit from Android from its inception to the start of the trial and t still has to pay Apple a reported $8 billion a year to be the default search engine for iOS. Apple has made a lot more in mobile from Google than Google has made from Android. For awhile, MS was making more in patent fees from Android OEMs than Google was making in licensing and advertising. Losing mobile was the best thing that could happen to MS so it could focus on Azure and making Office ubiquitous- where the real money is.
- harikb 7y ago
  > still has to pay Apple a reported $8 billion a year to be the default search engine for iOS. That is not the way to think about it - Imagine if Android didn't exist or faltered like Symbian, RIM, Windows Mobile etc. Google would have been paying way more than 8 billion. Android is definitely worth more than the money accounted towards it.
  - scarface74 7y ago
    Not really. The Android market is really not worth that much. Statistically it’s made up of consumers who aren’t willing to spend that much compared to iOS owners. The high end non Chinese Android market is minuscule. They just aren’t as attractive as iOS users to advertisers.
    - Semaphor 7y ago
      Only slightly related, but is it the same in EU? Unlike the USA, Android has a much higher market share here.