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I expect things are going to change less than most people think. The past decade in a number of ways represented less of a change from a technological perspect
by tempestn 7y ago
I expect things are going to change less than most people think. The past decade in a number of ways represented less of a change from a technological perspective than the several leading up to it, and I expect that will most likely continue. The alternative would be a massive new technology that changes everything, like AGI, or possibly level 4/5 self driving vehicles, but I don't expect either of those are coming in the next 10 years. Could be something else no one sees coming, but I doubt it. So for now I think we're on the tail end of an S-curve of change that has spanned several decades and numerous individual technologies.
So, specific predictions:
-fully driverless cars will see some limited use, perhaps with remote monitoring, but will not be ubiquitous.
-electric cars though will become very popular, with most new cars being electric.
-solar and wind installations will continue to grow. We'll probably see some innovation around distribution and metering as a result of electric vehicles and/or renewables, like smart home panels that pause charging when load is high or renewable production is low, or even draw from the electric vehicle to provide supplemental power when necessary. I doubt those things will be common in 10 years, but they'll be at least talked about.
-AI will continue to have more niche applications, but will not result in major societal change or job loss.
-no country will meet the current Paris climate agreement thresholds. However, climate change will widely be recognized as a serious problem. Climate change denial will continue the shift from "doesn't exist" to "not caused by humans", and then to, "even if caused by humans, nothing we can do". However the denial side will carry less weight, and most first world governments will have implemented carbon taxes or other schemes to reduce greenhouse gasses. We will be on course for > 2 degrees of warming though.
-There will be presidents from both parties in the White House after Trump.
Generally I expect where there are large changes, they will be political/geopolitical, not technological. I expect some change to be driven by increasing polarization and by the pressures of climate change. Most likely that will be a further entrenchment and isolationism, but there's a small chance that there could also be a significant backlash to that trend with something like the Green New Deal or open borders.