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1. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft will all be more valuable than they are today, and none will be broken up by government action. 2. Legislation
by nrp 7y ago
1. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft will all be more valuable than they are today, and none will be broken up by government action.
2. Legislation will increasingly come into place in the US and EU forcing tech companies to clean up their act on privacy, anti-competitiveness, and Right to Repair. All of these will further entrench the success of the companies in #1, but they will also open up market opportunities for start-ups focused on each. Some of those will be bought up by the giants.
3. Increased availability and efficiency of specialized compute for inference acceleration will bring about the rise of per-user generated video and rendered content, rather than only personalized text and recommendation feeds.
4. Politicians, advertisers, and scammers will find creative ways to exploit #3. Legislation to counter it will be late and ineffective.
5. Commoditization of machine vision and other sensing technology and AI will result in drastic changes in guerilla warfare and terrorism. Major attacks will occur in the developing and developed worlds before effective counter-measures can be put into place.
6. Head worn AR is still mostly used for productivity and industrial niches, and ubiquitous all-day-wearable headsets are only beginning to be practical as smartphone replacements. VR timespend for gaming exceeds traditional game consoles and gaming PCs and similarly makes headway in productivity. Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo all release VR-primary gaming systems.
7. The trade tensions between China and the US escalate into an economic and cultural cold war with the rest of the world picking sides.
8. 3D printing is increasingly used for specialized industrial and custom decorative design applications, but does not replace traditional fabrication and construction methods for mass production.
9. Bitcoin fails to gain traction as a mainstream transaction medium but is the de facto default currency for grey and black market transactions.
10. Several countries will develop gene-hacking industries, boosting medical tourism for procedures illegal in the US and EU.