4 ms·
* side-effect free programming (aka functional) will continue to take off; most new languages will embrace read-only by default * React will still be very popu
by darzu 7y ago
* side-effect free programming (aka functional) will continue to take off; most new languages will embrace read-only by default
* React will still be very popular
* Typescript will be 2x as popular as today
* Rust will grow and be regarded as the "right" way to do anything performant but sadly C++ will still hold the majority
* Formal verification will still be mostly a research thing, but maybe a couple prominent tools will be used by a few specific fields
* Programmer wages will be slightly lower than today as the field is flooded with talent, but total payout to all programmers will be larger than today (the field will grow, ~2-10x)
* Scripting will be important to a much larger portion of jobs
* Excel will still be king of data for most businesses
* IoT will not take off, but usage in industrial applications will be much larger
* HCI will be in the same place: touch screens for phones & tablets, keyboards, touchpads & mice for laptops & PCs
* Software will continue to increase in complexity for no real gain, eating any gains in hardware spee. iPhone 11s will run iOS slowly (but still be supported).
* Stadia will be dead after ~5 years and the MSFT equivalent never really launched
* Gaming will basically be in the same place, but high-budget games will forgo high graphics in favor of good gameplay on a wide range of devices (think minecraft & BotW)
* Phones will be basically identical to today, but hopefully at least Apple makes one that is small again and can be used with one hand
* Bluetooth will still exist and stuck, but Apple devices will work well together. Nothing better will exist.
* More electric cars but still not the majority
* Climate change debate will be at basically the same place, a few more countries 100% green, but most not. Death due to climate related issues will increase 2-10x but it won't be enough to persuade most countries to take serious action. Still no carbon accountability between nations, and carbon taxes won't be a thing
* Related to above, immigration and land-value changes due to climate change will be just taking off
* Anti-immigration will win politically and immigration from poorer to richer countries will be 1/2-1/10th the size of today.
* Germany is going to be in a recession, sadly. Due to declining demand for their specialized manufacturing, esp. in auto industry.
* Village bakeries and butchers in EU will be 1/4th of what they are today
* There won't be a major world war, but tensions will be worse than today
* Homelessness will still be a major issue.
* There will be no tech-bubble bursting. Software will continue to eat the world.
* Automation will have led to much more job loss
* Healthcare in the USA will be better but still much worse than most of the developed world
* Political polarization will be the same or worse; still first-past-the-post voting; private money still will win elections; still two parties in USA
* Facebook won't grow as fast as the other tech companies but it'll still be bigger than today
* A lot more people (proportionally) living in vans & RVs
* Capitalism will still be the norm and wealth & income will be even more concentrated
* The average person investing in index funds will be gaining ~4% per year in 2029, even though the "economy" will still be growing, somehow almost all the gains will be captured by the wealthiest
* China will be in a much stronger position than today, with roughly the same level of oppression. A few other countries will have bought China's oppression tech.
* The tensions in the middle east won't be any better, but won't be catastrophically worse
* 0-1 nukes will be detonated in a populated area
* Solar will still be growing rapidly but still far behind fossil fuels
* The Witcher will end after 5 seasons (books content ends midway through 3)
* Internet prices and access in the USA will be only slightly better, same with phone plans
* Some world leader will have been assassinated by a drone carrying a pipe bomb
* Average marital age will be >30 in USA for men and women
* Trump wins 2020, democrats 2024-2032
* At least one other corruption scandal with Trump that goes nowhere
* Disenfranchisement in USA is ~1.5x worse
* "AI" will still be making some progress but no singularity, no fully self driving cars, nothing super revolutionary
* quantum computers won't be having a business impact yet
* bike shares, scooter shares, and car shares won't take off
* No meaningful progress on passenger trains in USA
* Windows update will still suck
* Apple will still have the best experience but won't keep up with MSFT & Google & Amazon in growth
* Big three will be MSFT & Amazon & Google in that order
* Netflix won't be considered a tech company
* DIY will be booming, as well as off-grid living
* Snow sports will be a lot more expensive as climate change robs snowy days and larger population crowds the mountains
* Data leaks will decline but still happen and no significant accountability will happen
* News and journalism will be more or less the same, but there will be a few more good options out there that you can pay money for
* It'll be easier to point to data like actual tax spending in debates with friends instead of just "all the money goes to welfare", "no it all goes to the military", "n-uh", "yu-huh"