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Technically, we already have fully autonomous vehicles on the road, they're just not generally allowed to be used as such and have obvious failure modes not sha
by keldaris 7y ago
Technically, we already have fully autonomous vehicles on the road, they're just not generally allowed to be used as such and have obvious failure modes not shared by human drivers.
However, if by this you mean "autonomous vehicles that are clearly superior to reasonable human drivers under all reasonably frequent scenarios (including inclement weather) in any developed country" then yes, I feel very confident we won't see that in the next decade, probably two. I think the hyperoptimistic HN bubble is extremely far off the mark with respect to autonomous vehicles and always has been.
- liamcardenas 7y agoI thought of this after posting. Technically, there have been vehicles allow to operate fully autonomously on the road, yes. But I mean for non-research purposes, full-featured autonomous driving for consumer-owned vehicles.
- keldaris 7y agoI don't think it'll make much economic sense for consumers to actually buy them, but I do expect to see services accessible to the public that let you use an autonomous vehicle in places with effectively ideal conditions before 2030. I also don't regard that as a particularly significant advance in the broader sense of the objective because I think it's easier to get from zero to driving in Phoenix than it is to get from there to handling, say, traffic in Mumbai, both in technological and social terms.