4 ms·

Why do you think this market was so inefficient?

• xwowsersx 7y ago
  There was going to be temporary inefficiency no matter what because this was a pretty big and sudden supply shock. If your question is why did it last for as long as it did, I think it's because people (mainly sell side analysts) were very complacent and dismissed the concerns of didn't really understand the issues. Related to that is that it's harder to come by reliable information from China..which probably means the problem is far worse - if China admits to 1/4th reduction in hog herd, imagine how bad it must actually be!
  • egdod 7y ago
    Makes sense. And that is what I meant—it’s just strange to see material information not getting priced in within milliseconds.
    • perl4ever 7y ago
      People go around affirming how this happens, but I don't think very many people go out and try to determine through observation whether it's true. I noticed a stock was up ~60% one morning not too long ago, and when I looked for news, it turned out that they just had their drug approved by the FDA. But it continued to rise throughout the day, and eventually leveled off at about triple what it had been the previous day. The approval of a drug is about as clean and discrete a piece of market moving information as you can get, and yet anyone who could put it in context had hours to buy. That shouldn't make people go "oh, there are always exceptions", but "hmm, maybe a fundamental assumption somewhere is wrong". I mean, presumably people are using ML and inside information to the hilt, as much as they can, in today's market. But the consequences aren't what people think.
      • egdod 7y ago
        That’s interesting. What company?