5 ms·

> When we are looking to hit 9 billion soon, it’s probably not best to incentivize rampant population growth and large families. US fertility rate is already b

> When we are looking to hit 9 billion soon, it’s probably not best to incentivize rampant population growth and large families. US fertility rate is already below 2 (per woman), and overall population growth is already very low. It doesn't make sense to use population growth as a reason for anything at this point. Also, the growth to 9 billion worldwide isn't due to US. It's mostly due to Africa. And we already know what lowers the birth rate - better healthcare, better economy and better education. Nothing to do with tax policy or wealth transfer.

jelliclesfarm 7y ago
True but we only have a fixed land/resources in our planet and we must stay within carrying capacity. Maybe migration is in order. But we can’t increase a nation or a people’s population to keep up with others out of some kind of racial purity goal. Better healthcare also increases life span and population due to lower mortality rate. More women are educated today than 100 years ago, yet population has kept increasing steadily. World poverty has decreased and yet population has increased.
- zhengyi13 7y ago
  "The future is here already; it's just not evenly distributed" -- William Gibson.
- Reelin 7y ago
  > World poverty has decreased and yet population has increased. I think the demographic transition model applied on a per-country basis explains that quite well (and also makes clear that there is no immediate cause for concern based on population alone). https://www.thoughtco.com/demographic-transition-geography-1434497 https://www.thoughtco.com/demographic-transition-geography-1... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition
- drivebycomment 7y ago
  Your worldview is likely very wrong. The population growth is not a "sustained" state - it's an artifact of the transition from poverty to prosperity. Once a country has low child mortality rate and high education, the birthrate drops like a rock - you know, even China, which isn't that rich overall yet, has its birth rate drop below that of US - i.e. China's population growth has already effectively stopped (the actual number of people will continue to grow as the current population grows older, but the number of children won't change much). You may want to watch: https://www.gapminder.org/videos/population-growth-explained-with-ikea-boxes/ https://www.gapminder.org/videos/population-growth-explained... and a few other videos on gapminder. > we only have a fixed land/resources in our planet and we must stay within carrying capacity. There's no evidence that's the case. We do have serious environmental issues (like global warming, and pollution) but they are not directly related to "carrying capacity" to sustain the overall human population. For all we know, we know we can produce enough food to sustain the population. We know technological solutions to solve the global warming. Look at the historical data on birthrate (click play to see it change from 1800 to present): https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$time$value=2018;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&domainMin:null&domainMax:null&zoomedMin:null&zoomedMax:null&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=bubbles https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$time$value=2018;&mar... you'll find that the world has largely already converged to the steady state, and it's only Africa that needs to finish its transition to the sustainable state. Thus, the only humanitarian and practical way to end the population growth is to get the (most African) poor countries get better health, better education and economy, which is already in well progress.

jelliclesfarm 7y ago

True but we only have a fixed land/resources in our planet and we must stay within carrying capacity. Maybe migration is in order. But we can’t increase a nation or a people’s population to keep up with others out of some kind of racial purity goal. Better healthcare also increases life span and population due to lower mortality rate. More women are educated today than 100 years ago, yet population has kept increasing steadily. World poverty has decreased and yet population has increased.

zhengyi13 7y ago
"The future is here already; it's just not evenly distributed" -- William Gibson.
Reelin 7y ago
> World poverty has decreased and yet population has increased. I think the demographic transition model applied on a per-country basis explains that quite well (and also makes clear that there is no immediate cause for concern based on population alone). https://www.thoughtco.com/demographic-transition-geography-1434497 https://www.thoughtco.com/demographic-transition-geography-1... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition
drivebycomment 7y ago
Your worldview is likely very wrong. The population growth is not a "sustained" state - it's an artifact of the transition from poverty to prosperity. Once a country has low child mortality rate and high education, the birthrate drops like a rock - you know, even China, which isn't that rich overall yet, has its birth rate drop below that of US - i.e. China's population growth has already effectively stopped (the actual number of people will continue to grow as the current population grows older, but the number of children won't change much). You may want to watch: https://www.gapminder.org/videos/population-growth-explained-with-ikea-boxes/ https://www.gapminder.org/videos/population-growth-explained... and a few other videos on gapminder. > we only have a fixed land/resources in our planet and we must stay within carrying capacity. There's no evidence that's the case. We do have serious environmental issues (like global warming, and pollution) but they are not directly related to "carrying capacity" to sustain the overall human population. For all we know, we know we can produce enough food to sustain the population. We know technological solutions to solve the global warming. Look at the historical data on birthrate (click play to see it change from 1800 to present): https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$time$value=2018;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&domainMin:null&domainMax:null&zoomedMin:null&zoomedMax:null&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=bubbles https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$time$value=2018;&mar... you'll find that the world has largely already converged to the steady state, and it's only Africa that needs to finish its transition to the sustainable state. Thus, the only humanitarian and practical way to end the population growth is to get the (most African) poor countries get better health, better education and economy, which is already in well progress.