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As someone not in the financial world, this is one of the few times equities research has mad sense to me. It's still a bet but having that kind of research to
by milofeynman 7y ago
As someone not in the financial world, this is one of the few times equities research has mad sense to me. It's still a bet but having that kind of research to bet off of is really interesting. Another time was that article about measuring the shadows of tankers carrying oil outside of port.
I appreciate the insight.
- kaycebasques 7y agoI don’t know if this comment is too basic, but if you appreciate this type of speculation/investment, you’d be interested in the world of macro investing, short for macroeconomic. It’s all about looking at big global trends and then figuring out how to translate those into investments/bets.
- weberc2 7y agoAny resources (blogs, podcasts) suitable for laypeople?
- finolex1 7y agoYou could like at the website of Bridgewater Associates, a big macro hedge fund, though they obviously don't publish most things.
- throwawaymath 7y agoRead the blogs and articles published by AQR.
- maroonblazer 7y agoWhile not exclusively macro, the podcast Econtalk regularly explores macroeconomic issues. https://www.econtalk.org/ https://www.econtalk.org/ The host has a libertarian bias but is pretty upfront about it so you know where he's coming from. I don't agree with him on everything but his podcast is almost always interesting.
- Psyladine 7y agoRead Liar Poker, Michael Lewis's expose of Wall Street in the 80s. One sterling example of what makes a great trader came when he was woken up to news of Chernobyl. Like most people aware of the disaster, he was thinking in terms of fear, long term effects of radiation and nuclear anxiety. His trader friend called him with a tip to buy potatoes. He called back to say also diapers. The trader correctly identified market trends in reaction to both nuclear radiation on global food stocks, and human behavior aggregates to nuclear anxiety (which in 9 months leads to higher demand for diapers). It's a state of mind not entirely human, but understanding human behavior.
- majos 7y ago> human behavior aggregates to nuclear anxiety (which in 9 months leads to higher demand for diapers). Is this real? Similar claims were made about a baby bump around June 2002 (9 months after 9/11), but nothing happened [1]. [1] https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/baby-boom-3/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/baby-boom-3/
- wyxuan 7y agoMy goodness, but Macrovoices by Erik Townsend is GREAT. Macrovoices.com Ignore the latest episode with Pippa Malmgren, but it has a ton of macro insights that lay people can understand; while not being too basic.
- kaycebasques 7y agoThis was also the first thing I thought of recommending but I was worried it required too much background knowledge in economics.
- jeffshek 7y agoOne caveat though is global macro is notoriously difficult. Even when you think all signs point to a conclusion - think “peak oil hypothesis” something can come out of the moon that changes all your hypothesis, ruining your funds return easily.
- jliptzin 7y agoCould you link me to the article about the oil tankers?
- milofeynman 7y agohttps://fortune.com/2017/12/16/satellites-commodity-trading-world/ https://fortune.com/2017/12/16/satellites-commodity-trading-... It's been awhile and I can't find the original but this one is pretty close.