I think overall ticket prices would rise much more slowly. First off, baggage fees are now tax free. That gives a huge incentive to maximize increases there.

I think overall ticket prices would rise much more slowly. First off, baggage fees are now tax free. That gives a huge incentive to maximize increases there. Second, consumers will simply pick a flight based on lowest cost, not realizing the exorbitant baggage fees. Regular business customers will either already be using carry-on only, or the business will eat the cost. Consumers usually don't fly that much, so they'll fall prey to the misdirection, probably forget by the time they fly again, and will likely consider x bags a necessity.