4 ms·

Sure, but is continuing on the same thing a second lottery ticket? Or is it a new lottery althogether?

lnsru 7y ago
I would say one idea is the same lottery, just different round. Of course, the things change a bit after every client interview or after each technical failure (parts not available anymore). But if I continue this year, in autumn luck might be very close. Something like buying 1/10 of all tickets. I bought first ticket in 2018, then wasted a year in between with hopeless e-commerce project.
- TuringTest 7y ago
  In a meritocratic competition like the one in the experiment, each miss puts you behind in comparison with those that got lucky. And if a success provides exponencial growth, any failure to win the lottery places you far behind the luckiest winners very fast.
  - lnsru 7y ago
    That’s why I am trying to ignore as much as I can the fact, that don’t getting lucky ticket immediately makes me a loser. Because many of these lucky tickets aren’t in the reality that fair. A guy’s dad know another guy and voila, it’s funded! Or mom just buys one a property in really expensive city while you balance full time job and development in the evening to start your own something. Best success stories I know were not fair as an ideal lottery should be.
    - TuringTest 7y ago
      Or, you could try supporting the policies described in the article that increase the probability of talented people reaching their full potential.
- aledalgrande 7y ago
  I'm not sure why you'd have a 1/10 of the tickets. A lottery is any random event that can happen to you or the company. Not the whole startup. What we are saying here (and Turing also explained in the other comment) is that a series of random events can give you a huge benefit, leaving competition far behind. You make the lottery spin at each of these events. Random lotteries are independent in their probabilities. So you cannot artificially increase your probability to win.

I would say one idea is the same lottery, just different round. Of course, the things change a bit after every client interview or after each technical failure (parts not available anymore). But if I continue this year, in autumn luck might be very close. Something like buying 1/10 of all tickets. I bought first ticket in 2018, then wasted a year in between with hopeless e-commerce project.

TuringTest 7y ago
In a meritocratic competition like the one in the experiment, each miss puts you behind in comparison with those that got lucky. And if a success provides exponencial growth, any failure to win the lottery places you far behind the luckiest winners very fast.
- lnsru 7y ago
  That’s why I am trying to ignore as much as I can the fact, that don’t getting lucky ticket immediately makes me a loser. Because many of these lucky tickets aren’t in the reality that fair. A guy’s dad know another guy and voila, it’s funded! Or mom just buys one a property in really expensive city while you balance full time job and development in the evening to start your own something. Best success stories I know were not fair as an ideal lottery should be.
  - TuringTest 7y ago
    Or, you could try supporting the policies described in the article that increase the probability of talented people reaching their full potential.
aledalgrande 7y ago
I'm not sure why you'd have a 1/10 of the tickets. A lottery is any random event that can happen to you or the company. Not the whole startup. What we are saying here (and Turing also explained in the other comment) is that a series of random events can give you a huge benefit, leaving competition far behind. You make the lottery spin at each of these events. Random lotteries are independent in their probabilities. So you cannot artificially increase your probability to win.