4 ms·
The thing I dislike most about attributing success to mostly luck is that luck is almost always defined as "good luck", but there is bad luck too. Often talente
by rpedela 7y ago
The thing I dislike most about attributing success to mostly luck is that luck is almost always defined as "good luck", but there is bad luck too. Often talented, hard working people are better at maximizing the effects of good luck and minimizing the effects of bad luck. So it is not luck (good or bad), it is not talent, it is not hard work, it is all of the above.
- TuringTest 7y agoThe model in the paper accounts for that, having both "good luck" events that double the guy's income on a successful "talent" check, and "bad luck" events that unconditionally halve income. The different runs show that luck weights a lot more than talent in the final outcome, thought there are strategies that alleviate this problem.