Many here are claiming he lost the bet on #1, but consider the details: Predicted Aggregate value: $200B Actual value: $145B (Math in [1]) His prediction is

Many here are claiming he lost the bet on #1, but consider the details: Predicted Aggregate value: $200B Actual value: $145B (Math in [1]) His prediction is off by 25%. Technically a lost bet, but I'd say a prudent bet as a VC. As for #2, #3, he wins them outright. Overall, being 25% off the most optimistic prediction isn't too bad a loss. I'd say he won the argument convincingly. I will note that anyone above average intellect in his position (as an investor with gobbles of analytics, best in class prediction models and advisors, and access to thousands of high quality pitches to see down the pipeline) would likely predict as he did, so while he won, he wasn't clairvoyant, he was merely following the data. [1]: Math: Uber: $50B SpaceX: $35B. Airbnb: $35B Palantir: $25B Pinterest: $10B Dropbox: $7.5B