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I loved those books, but the dark forest theory doesn’t make sense. Given a dangerous universe it would make sense for a civilization to try to communicate with

by jmull 7y ago

I loved those books, but the dark forest theory doesn’t make sense. Given a dangerous universe it would make sense for a civilization to try to communicate with other civilizations to create alliances for mutual safety. The civilizations that are able to forge alliances will tend to out-compete lone wolves. Liu assumes that it is somehow a lot easier to wipe out a civilization than communicate with it, and that for some reason your civilization has to decide to wipe out another civilization without communicating with it.

LoSboccacc 7y ago
alliances put some lower bound constraint on the logistic capabilities and density of the civilisations that form them. strategically speaking and stunning hostile unknowns a stable civilization controls a territory matching reasonable response time from the ready armies at their combat speed and necessarily a requirement for alliances to form is for these zones to overlap but if they are at such distance it negates one of the prerequisite for the dark forest theory, that civs are sparse enough for the chance of facing hostiles alone is on par with encountering non hostile civs
- krapp 7y ago
  Interstellar space isn't an ocean, and star systems aren't countries. Analogies to Earth militaries and navies simply don't apply, the scale of space is too big. You're not going to form any sort of "alliance" over a distance of light-years, much less consider the fleets of hostile civilizations to be a threat by their proximity the way England once considered Spanish fleets a threat. There's no "reasonable response time" when allies will take years to hear your distress call, and more years to arrive.
ceejayoz 7y ago
> Liu assumes that it is somehow a lot easier to wipe out a civilization than communicate with it... This may be true, though. We struggle to effectively communicate with creatures on our own planet available in real-time, like dolphins and elephants, who appear to think and have language of sorts. Launching some relativistic sand at another planet may well be a lot easier.
- jmull 7y ago
  We seem to communicate pretty well with dolphins, elephants, and other animals. Consider trainers who work with these animals on a daily basis and have rich and productive relationships with them.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    We can explain "go press that button" or "lift your leg" fairly well. We can't, as yet, put a dolphin through something like an elementary school level education.

by jmull 7y ago

LoSboccacc 7y ago

alliances put some lower bound constraint on the logistic capabilities and density of the civilisations that form them. strategically speaking and stunning hostile unknowns a stable civilization controls a territory matching reasonable response time from the ready armies at their combat speed and necessarily a requirement for alliances to form is for these zones to overlap but if they are at such distance it negates one of the prerequisite for the dark forest theory, that civs are sparse enough for the chance of facing hostiles alone is on par with encountering non hostile civs

krapp 7y ago
Interstellar space isn't an ocean, and star systems aren't countries. Analogies to Earth militaries and navies simply don't apply, the scale of space is too big. You're not going to form any sort of "alliance" over a distance of light-years, much less consider the fleets of hostile civilizations to be a threat by their proximity the way England once considered Spanish fleets a threat. There's no "reasonable response time" when allies will take years to hear your distress call, and more years to arrive.

ceejayoz 7y ago

> Liu assumes that it is somehow a lot easier to wipe out a civilization than communicate with it... This may be true, though. We struggle to effectively communicate with creatures on our own planet available in real-time, like dolphins and elephants, who appear to think and have language of sorts. Launching some relativistic sand at another planet may well be a lot easier.

jmull 7y ago
We seem to communicate pretty well with dolphins, elephants, and other animals. Consider trainers who work with these animals on a daily basis and have rich and productive relationships with them.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  We can explain "go press that button" or "lift your leg" fairly well. We can't, as yet, put a dolphin through something like an elementary school level education.