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The models attempt to encapsulate this issue through the variable of how long a civilization lasts. As easy as it is to imagine civilizations similar to us, it’
by hesdeadjim 7y ago
The models attempt to encapsulate this issue through the variable of how long a civilization lasts. As easy as it is to imagine civilizations similar to us, it’s equally easy to imagine others where other variables prevent the intense egoism we evolved as a species. Or worlds where competition is less fierce perhaps. Etc..
Either way I find it fascinating that we could be living in what is essentially the rural area of the galaxy.
- lonelappde 7y agoWith a sample size of 1, there is no way to estimate the possibility of a species fundamentally unlike us becoming spacefaring. We can count stars pretty well, but we can only barely estimate the probability of an earth-like planet existing around a star and forming cellular life.
- yborg 7y agoThis actually was kind of the nugget for me in this story: "At one extreme, it is easy to make the galaxy empty by simply shrinking the number of usable planets and having civilizations last for only, say, 100,000 years or so." i.e. 10x longer than we have had even rudimentary technological civilization on our own planet. Sample size of 1, etc. but this to me seems the simple explanation of the "paradox". Space is big, and 100k years is a long period of time to not make a mistake.