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> Bubbles happen when everyone in the market is stupid. No. Bubbles happen when interest rates are low or via other mechanisms ( QE, etc ) excess capital is cr

> Bubbles happen when everyone in the market is stupid. No. Bubbles happen when interest rates are low or via other mechanisms ( QE, etc ) excess capital is created. > Stupidly believe nothing could go wrong. No. This is just standard nonsense we teach entry level financial analysts who know nothing or something the business news parrots. The "stupid" masses don't create bubbles. The highly "intelligent" financial masters do - FED/banks with the help of politicians and media. > The only risk I see right now is China. Simply because the market is so opaque we have no idea what is really going on. Another one of these. Once again, somebody has to link china with something that really has nothing to do with china. Also, the chinese markets aren't any more "opaque" than any other markets. Really, you have no idea what's going on there? I thought china was collapsing because of all the "ghost cities"? The anti-china crowd is so hilarious. On the one hand, china is a risk because we know exactly what's happening there. On the the other hand, china is a risk because they are "opaque" and we have no idea what's happening there. Sometimes it's hard to tell whether these comments are from propagandists or those mindlessly parroting the propaganda. But in the meantime, people who know nothing will argue about silly nonsense PE, EPS, Beta, etc. There is a bubble because the big boys want there to be a bubble. APPL rose 84% because the big boys wanted it to. The bubble will pop and there will be a recession when the big boys decide. "I nearly stopped reading after this. In hindsight I should have done exactly just that.". Amen to that. Should be the HN motto.

ksec 7y ago
>No. Bubbles happen when interest rates are low or via other mechanisms ( QE, etc ) excess capital is created. No. Bubbles happen when excess capital is put into the stock market. Which isn't exactly what is happening here. It is certainly rolled into other asset, mainly property. >The "stupid" masses don't create bubbles. No one said masses, especially your masses here implies general investors. The market create bubble, not some singular or multiple financial institution. You could have throw hundreds of billions into market and if the market dont follow you are just another masses. >Another one of these. Once again, somebody has to link china with something that really has nothing to do with china. Also, the chinese markets aren't any more "opaque" than any other markets. Really, you have no idea what's going on there? I thought china was collapsing because of all the "ghost cities"? Strange you mentioned all of these when none of it was implied or mentioned. Have you been to those so called Ghost Cities? >There is a bubble because the big boys want there to be a bubble. APPL rose 84% because the big boys wanted it to. The bubble will pop and there will be a recession when the big boys decide. What you are suggesting is big boys resulted in everything. And I will leave it at that.
perl4ever 7y ago
"Bubbles happen when everyone in the market is stupid. No. Bubbles happen when interest rates are low or via other mechanisms ( QE, etc ) excess capital is created." --- Nobody has or can define a bubble. Nobody can see 30+ years into the future. Right now, 30 year treasury bonds are paying about 2.3%. If the capital markets are efficient, then there is no free lunch, so you can expect returns of stocks in the next 30 years to be essentially the same or about zero if inflation stays low and all nominal income will be from dividends. Is that a bubble in stocks or bonds? Well, I think what will determine if people call it a bubble in hindsight is if inflation goes up and interest rates as well. But that is not expected by most.

ksec 7y ago

>No. Bubbles happen when interest rates are low or via other mechanisms ( QE, etc ) excess capital is created. No. Bubbles happen when excess capital is put into the stock market. Which isn't exactly what is happening here. It is certainly rolled into other asset, mainly property. >The "stupid" masses don't create bubbles. No one said masses, especially your masses here implies general investors. The market create bubble, not some singular or multiple financial institution. You could have throw hundreds of billions into market and if the market dont follow you are just another masses. >Another one of these. Once again, somebody has to link china with something that really has nothing to do with china. Also, the chinese markets aren't any more "opaque" than any other markets. Really, you have no idea what's going on there? I thought china was collapsing because of all the "ghost cities"? Strange you mentioned all of these when none of it was implied or mentioned. Have you been to those so called Ghost Cities? >There is a bubble because the big boys want there to be a bubble. APPL rose 84% because the big boys wanted it to. The bubble will pop and there will be a recession when the big boys decide. What you are suggesting is big boys resulted in everything. And I will leave it at that.

perl4ever 7y ago

"Bubbles happen when everyone in the market is stupid. No. Bubbles happen when interest rates are low or via other mechanisms ( QE, etc ) excess capital is created." --- Nobody has or can define a bubble. Nobody can see 30+ years into the future. Right now, 30 year treasury bonds are paying about 2.3%. If the capital markets are efficient, then there is no free lunch, so you can expect returns of stocks in the next 30 years to be essentially the same or about zero if inflation stays low and all nominal income will be from dividends. Is that a bubble in stocks or bonds? Well, I think what will determine if people call it a bubble in hindsight is if inflation goes up and interest rates as well. But that is not expected by most.