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the timing is hard to get right Yes the timing is tricky and decay is a bitch. My thesis is that the market will begin to drop in January. Perhaps as soon as

the timing is hard to get right Yes the timing is tricky and decay is a bitch. My thesis is that the market will begin to drop in January. Perhaps as soon as January 2. The puts are to protect my portfolio from that scenario. If the market doesn't drop I will quickly blow out of my put options. The time decay over a few days or even weeks on a 90 day option isn't that significant. Of more concern is that the price of a put will decline if the market continues to move up away from the strike price. It's a double whammy because, as a market moves up, the inherent cost of options (the implied volatility) usually goes down as well. Or if you're a true believer, then you'd roll over your options, and keep throwing money down. Yes it's foolish to keep rolling put options in a rising market. You must use them tactically for when you expect an inflection point might soon be at hand. You can also use put options for more practical reasons. E.g. in my case I need to periodically sell stocks because I have tuition to pay for my daughter currently in college. Two scenarios: 1) stay in the market, buy puts, lose some of the upside because of cost of puts. 2) sell stock now against future tuition needs, lose all of the upside.

blackrock 7y ago
Good luck! The market tends to crash right after everyone is exuberant and claiming that it'll go up forever. Then, the adults come into the room, and pull the rug from under them. Then these same people start seeing red and cry that the world is going to fall apart. They completely forget that their previous stance was that the market would go up forever. On a side note, some people think that they could've timed the Big Short of 2008. If only they had bought a Put. Or go naked, and short the SPY stock directly. But from my analysis, this was an impossibility. At least to a normal trader. There were just too many fake-outs, too many dead-cat bounces, that the likelihood of you fulfilling your original trading thesis, is nil. The whole thing took place over a 12 month span, which is far too long to execute a derivative trade. So, you would have to short the stock naked, and hold it for 12 months, and hope and pray that your thesis was correct. But, you can only borrow so much money, thus the benefit of such a trade, was not worth the risk. If you made any money, then it would be a rounding error. Now, if you had insider information (especially on when critical actions were being taken by the government and key players), and if you have significant financial resources, then that might be a different game. And you would've benefited significantly from that once-in-a-lifetime trade. But for the rest of us normal folks, shorting the market in 2008 was impossible. Anyways, good luck! This market needs to correct. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. This QE insanity has impoverished us all. Except for the rich elites. They're like vampires that suck on the souls of the poor unwashed masses, and the middle class that hopes to be rich like them but never will, and laugh at us all, as they lounge around on their 3rd yacht.

blackrock 7y ago

Good luck! The market tends to crash right after everyone is exuberant and claiming that it'll go up forever. Then, the adults come into the room, and pull the rug from under them. Then these same people start seeing red and cry that the world is going to fall apart. They completely forget that their previous stance was that the market would go up forever. On a side note, some people think that they could've timed the Big Short of 2008. If only they had bought a Put. Or go naked, and short the SPY stock directly. But from my analysis, this was an impossibility. At least to a normal trader. There were just too many fake-outs, too many dead-cat bounces, that the likelihood of you fulfilling your original trading thesis, is nil. The whole thing took place over a 12 month span, which is far too long to execute a derivative trade. So, you would have to short the stock naked, and hold it for 12 months, and hope and pray that your thesis was correct. But, you can only borrow so much money, thus the benefit of such a trade, was not worth the risk. If you made any money, then it would be a rounding error. Now, if you had insider information (especially on when critical actions were being taken by the government and key players), and if you have significant financial resources, then that might be a different game. And you would've benefited significantly from that once-in-a-lifetime trade. But for the rest of us normal folks, shorting the market in 2008 was impossible. Anyways, good luck! This market needs to correct. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. This QE insanity has impoverished us all. Except for the rich elites. They're like vampires that suck on the souls of the poor unwashed masses, and the middle class that hopes to be rich like them but never will, and laugh at us all, as they lounge around on their 3rd yacht.