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"They don't need much time to catch up." People have been saying this for a while now and all evidence points to it being radically wrong so far. There were n

"They don't need much time to catch up." People have been saying this for a while now and all evidence points to it being radically wrong so far. There were numerous new entrants in the EV market this year billed as 'Tesla Killers' and all of them turned out to be massive flops so far because none of them come close to Tesla's range/features and price. The most recent example of this is the Porsche Taycan which was originally billed as having 311 miles of range when first announced. Once the production model was rated according to the EPA standard it turns out it's range is only 201 miles. You can't buy a Tesla that bad at any price and the Starting price of the Porsche is 50% more expensive than the most expensive Tesla Model S. Similar stories played out with the Audi Etron, and Jaguar Ipace. As for the VW ID3, Porsche is owned by VW. If they can't make a great electric car for $150k how the heck are they going to make one to compete for 1/3 that cost? There are even early indications the the ID 3 could be a huge fiasco [0] They are running into huge software problems and are stock piling ID 3's in a storage lot until they have time to fix the software. [0] https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswagen-id3-has-massive-software-problems-as-company-begins-year-of-ev-introductions/ https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswagen-id3-has-massive-so...

Krasnol 7y ago
It doesn't sound like a huge fiasco tbh. Those cars were scheduled to be delivered in Summer and the software patches are supposed to be delivered over air after they've patched those 20.000 cars. No customer will get their car later because of this. It's nothing compared to the fiasco they "suffered" through the Diesel manipulations PS. VW is owned by Porsche not the other way around.
- micheljansen 7y ago
  Volkswagen and Porsche are both owned by The Volkswagen Group, which in turn is largely owned by the Porsche family, so I guess you are both right. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group
- nl 7y ago
  VW is owned by Porsche not the other way around. This is incorrect, and the story behind VW buying Porsche after Porsche attempted to buy VW is one of the greatest stories in corporate finance. Additonally the two sides of the Porsche/Piëch (Ferdinand Piëch - VW Chariman - was Ferdinand Porsche's grandson) family were rivals, and Ferdinand Piëch had an affair with his sister-in-law Marlene Porsche. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day-Volkswagen-briefly-conquered-the-world/ https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day... Here's the second half of that story, where VW got there revenge on Porsche for the attempted take overs. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jul/05/volkswagen-buys-porsche https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jul/05/volkswagen-...
Barrin92 7y ago
>People have been saying this for a while now and all evidence points to it being radically wrong so far. People have also been saying that Germany needs to 'catch up' and to follow the trend of American or British startups for 50 years and they've been wrong every time. The German carmakers make as many cars per day as Tesla makes in a year. Over the next two decades, the majority of cars on global roads will still be non-electric. What the German carmakers need to do is what they have always done. Slowly adopt modern technology while avoiding to buy into the hysteria of the week.
- davidgould 7y ago
  > German carmakers make as many cars per day as Tesla makes in a year This may have been true three years ago, but Tesla made over 350000 cars last year. By your math the German carmakers are making 128 million cars per year. They are not.
  - Barrin92 7y ago
    per week then, the gist of it is that the electric car market is small compared to the gigantic scale that the German car industry works at. And that's going to stay this way for a long time, and there is no reason for industry leaders to panic. They're big companies with comfortable profits who have time to adjust instead of trying to overcorrect. And that's not just true for German carmakers. In the US there's been a trend again towards trucks as Millenials increasingly move to the Sunbelt and away from the coasts and benefit off the cheap gas prices. The idea that everyone is going to start to drive electric seems increasingly dubious to me to begin with. The big problem of the future of electric vehicles is going to be demand.
    - pmorici 7y ago
      Nokia was a big company with comfortable profits too in 2007. If you haven't yet I'd suggest going and driving a Model 3 around for a day. Tesla is supply constrained right now the demand is infinite for these cars and soon trucks as volume drives down price.
    - 7y ago
PhantomGremlin 7y ago
The most recent example of this is the Porsche Taycan The EPA range is certainly disappointing. However, the Tesla and the Porsche have much different design goals and target customers. Porsche sports cars are not meant to be inexpensive and are not meant to compete in the mass market. For example, the Tesla is strictly direct drive, the Taycan has a two speed transmission. Ratio is 15:1 motor:wheel in 1st gear and 8:1 in second gear. Compare the two cars at a steady speed of 120 mph (if any factory stock Tesla could maintain that speed for long). I'll make a stupid guess and say that the range of the Porsche at that speed is greater than any Tesla. I know that's not saying much in favor of Porsche for most people. I, for one, have never driven faster than 100 mph in my life. But there are people that do, and there are others that have enough money that it makes them feel good to know that they can go that fast if they want to. The Taycan is a niche car. It will probably not sell as many units as the Panamera, which is itself a niche car. Nevertheless, your overall point is quite strong. So many new EVs, so poorly do they compare to the various Tesla models.

Krasnol 7y ago

It doesn't sound like a huge fiasco tbh. Those cars were scheduled to be delivered in Summer and the software patches are supposed to be delivered over air after they've patched those 20.000 cars. No customer will get their car later because of this. It's nothing compared to the fiasco they "suffered" through the Diesel manipulations PS. VW is owned by Porsche not the other way around.

micheljansen 7y ago
Volkswagen and Porsche are both owned by The Volkswagen Group, which in turn is largely owned by the Porsche family, so I guess you are both right. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group
nl 7y ago
VW is owned by Porsche not the other way around. This is incorrect, and the story behind VW buying Porsche after Porsche attempted to buy VW is one of the greatest stories in corporate finance. Additonally the two sides of the Porsche/Piëch (Ferdinand Piëch - VW Chariman - was Ferdinand Porsche's grandson) family were rivals, and Ferdinand Piëch had an affair with his sister-in-law Marlene Porsche. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day-Volkswagen-briefly-conquered-the-world/ https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day... Here's the second half of that story, where VW got there revenge on Porsche for the attempted take overs. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jul/05/volkswagen-buys-porsche https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jul/05/volkswagen-...

Barrin92 7y ago

>People have been saying this for a while now and all evidence points to it being radically wrong so far. People have also been saying that Germany needs to 'catch up' and to follow the trend of American or British startups for 50 years and they've been wrong every time. The German carmakers make as many cars per day as Tesla makes in a year. Over the next two decades, the majority of cars on global roads will still be non-electric. What the German carmakers need to do is what they have always done. Slowly adopt modern technology while avoiding to buy into the hysteria of the week.

davidgould 7y ago
> German carmakers make as many cars per day as Tesla makes in a year This may have been true three years ago, but Tesla made over 350000 cars last year. By your math the German carmakers are making 128 million cars per year. They are not.
- Barrin92 7y ago
  per week then, the gist of it is that the electric car market is small compared to the gigantic scale that the German car industry works at. And that's going to stay this way for a long time, and there is no reason for industry leaders to panic. They're big companies with comfortable profits who have time to adjust instead of trying to overcorrect. And that's not just true for German carmakers. In the US there's been a trend again towards trucks as Millenials increasingly move to the Sunbelt and away from the coasts and benefit off the cheap gas prices. The idea that everyone is going to start to drive electric seems increasingly dubious to me to begin with. The big problem of the future of electric vehicles is going to be demand.
  - pmorici 7y ago
    Nokia was a big company with comfortable profits too in 2007. If you haven't yet I'd suggest going and driving a Model 3 around for a day. Tesla is supply constrained right now the demand is infinite for these cars and soon trucks as volume drives down price.
  - 7y ago

PhantomGremlin 7y ago

The most recent example of this is the Porsche Taycan The EPA range is certainly disappointing. However, the Tesla and the Porsche have much different design goals and target customers. Porsche sports cars are not meant to be inexpensive and are not meant to compete in the mass market. For example, the Tesla is strictly direct drive, the Taycan has a two speed transmission. Ratio is 15:1 motor:wheel in 1st gear and 8:1 in second gear. Compare the two cars at a steady speed of 120 mph (if any factory stock Tesla could maintain that speed for long). I'll make a stupid guess and say that the range of the Porsche at that speed is greater than any Tesla. I know that's not saying much in favor of Porsche for most people. I, for one, have never driven faster than 100 mph in my life. But there are people that do, and there are others that have enough money that it makes them feel good to know that they can go that fast if they want to. The Taycan is a niche car. It will probably not sell as many units as the Panamera, which is itself a niche car. Nevertheless, your overall point is quite strong. So many new EVs, so poorly do they compare to the various Tesla models.