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The Germany car industry should have seen the writing on the wall a few years back - when Merkel was forced to intervene to water down the European Commission's

The Germany car industry should have seen the writing on the wall a few years back - when Merkel was forced to intervene to water down the European Commission's proposed emissions regulations - and disrupted itself, and if it had, it might have put them in a better position now. But even that would I think have been just forestalling the inevitable: the barriers to entry to the car industry seem to me to be lower than ever before, to the extent that even Vietnam - somewhere that was previously considered a 'developing' country - has its own home-grown electric car manufacturer, and I'm betting it's a lot cheaper to make cars in Vietnam than it is in Germany.

wolfi1 7y ago
In fact, they did see the writing, BMW for example developed the Hydrogen 7 [0], Mercedes Benz produced Fuel Cell cars[1]. What they didn't expect, was, that simple Lithium based batteries would take over. Obviously they wanted to retain the range of the combustion engine cars [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_Hydrogen_7 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_Hydrogen_7 [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes-Benz_F-Cell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes-Benz_F-Cell
- kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
  VW had a skateboard platform concept EV 10+ years ago. They could have productized it if they had competent leadership.
  - tastygreenapple 7y ago
    We had EVs over 100 years ago and folks already knew the advantages of electric power over fossil fuel power. However, batteries have been the limiting factor for awhile. Even now, only Tesla seems to have batteries that meet consumers power/range/cost expectations and they exclusively own the largest battery plant in the world. I'm not sure we can blame VW for being slower to EVs than Elon Musk and FWIW, the VW company seems to be pivoting to EVs the fastest. The Taycan - a VW product - is the first car that's competitive with a Model S.
    - Zenst 7y ago
      Yip, was many electric cars before petrol took over. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_P1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_P1 Being one example.
- adrianN 7y ago
  Hydrogen fuel cell concept cars were in the news for as long as I can remember. I consider them nothing more than appeasement to prevent stricter emission standards. German politicians have been prophesying self-regulation towards more efficient cars for more than thirty years now. What we got instead was a SUV boom and cheating on emission tests.
bertjk 7y ago
Turkey also: https://www.engadget.com/2019/12/29/turkey-togg-electric-crossover-suv/ https://www.engadget.com/2019/12/29/turkey-togg-electric-cro... I'm starting to think that the most significant consequence of the mechanical simplicity of electric cars is not the additional per-car reliability or potentially lower TCO. It is that manufacturing cars has suddenly become accessible to a much wider and geopolitically more diverse set of industrial bases. Maybe electric cars will be the new textiles where developing economies are concerned.
- buboard 7y ago
  > manufacturing cars has suddenly become accessible to a much wider and geopolitically more diverse set of industrial bases It has always been. German companies manufacture parts or cars in cheap countries (like turkey). Yet there are no well-known hungarian or turkish cars
- sho_hn 7y ago
  Both the Turkey EV (TOGG) and the Vietnamese EV (VinFast) are prototype cars made by Pinafarina in Italy, I believe. They're not as fully homegrown as one might think.
- pfdietz 7y ago
  It also reminds me, at least a bit, of what happened to film and cameras when digital imaging took over.
agumonkey 7y ago
The world is weird and complex, BMW had some L2 autonomous system late 80s. Nobody cared it ended up on a shelf somewhere.
- ChuckNorris89 7y ago
  BMW also didn't care about it since the main point of the BMW brand was driver engagement and sporty feel aimed at purists. Autonomous driving goes against that mantra and was seen as something uncool, for old people who couldn't drive or something like that and would get you ridiculed by driving purists. That, however, was before sporty cars became luxury cars and vice versa.
  - agumonkey 7y ago
    Very good points
nosianu 7y ago
> The Germany car industry should have seen the writing on the wall But that does not change anything! The point is less workers will be needed. What difference does it make to "see the writing on the wall"? I don't even see any reason to look into the claim itself - it's completely irrelevant. Even if they adapt perfectly and Germany becomes a happy 100% electrical-car country, we will lose a lot of employment in the car industry.
- growlist 7y ago
  > we will lose a lot of employment in the car industry This only increases the importance of hanging onto as many as possible of the shrunken pool of jobs that will be left.
ossworkerrights 7y ago
Thanks to Germany, eastern Europe is a dumping ground for low quality, highly polluting German cars. A sad state of affairs and it shows just how the EU is biased towards a handful of countries.
- ChuckNorris89 7y ago
  It's not really Germany's fault. It's our fault in the East for the vanity of prioritizing low cost second hand luxury vehicles above our health and not holding the government accountable for the lack of a functioning public transport system. The Romanian railway system is a national embarrassment. Germany isn't dumping anything, it's just supplying the demand coming from Eastern Europeans who make lengthy trips there with platform trailers to bring back cheap second hand luxury vehicles that are now longer economically viable there. I've seen way more BMW X5s and Audi Q7s in Romanian cities than in my time working in Germany and Austria combined. I don't think the Germans came and shoved them down our throats. Where Germany is at fault is its lack of action after Dieselgate since it decided to protect VW and its executives rather than the health of the EU citizens that are still having their lungs stuffed with diesel particulate from the tens of thousands of TDI engines happily roaming around us.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - ossworkerrights 7y ago
    Countries have laws for exporting used electronics exactly so poor countries dont become dumping grounds. The same should be the case for intra eu vehicles. The German government is blocking such an initiative using the EU, and clocked or high polluting vehicles end up in countries such as a Romania. Poverty and corruption in that country are rampant but that is no excuse to dumping low quality german cars there. Edit: the gov of romania has already tried taxing old vehicles but was pushed back by the eu. Blind obedience to the eu and self blame wont fix your country.
    - petre 7y ago

wolfi1 7y ago

In fact, they did see the writing, BMW for example developed the Hydrogen 7 [0], Mercedes Benz produced Fuel Cell cars[1]. What they didn't expect, was, that simple Lithium based batteries would take over. Obviously they wanted to retain the range of the combustion engine cars [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_Hydrogen_7 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_Hydrogen_7 [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes-Benz_F-Cell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes-Benz_F-Cell

kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
VW had a skateboard platform concept EV 10+ years ago. They could have productized it if they had competent leadership.
- tastygreenapple 7y ago
  We had EVs over 100 years ago and folks already knew the advantages of electric power over fossil fuel power. However, batteries have been the limiting factor for awhile. Even now, only Tesla seems to have batteries that meet consumers power/range/cost expectations and they exclusively own the largest battery plant in the world. I'm not sure we can blame VW for being slower to EVs than Elon Musk and FWIW, the VW company seems to be pivoting to EVs the fastest. The Taycan - a VW product - is the first car that's competitive with a Model S.
  - Zenst 7y ago
    Yip, was many electric cars before petrol took over. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_P1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_P1 Being one example.
adrianN 7y ago
Hydrogen fuel cell concept cars were in the news for as long as I can remember. I consider them nothing more than appeasement to prevent stricter emission standards. German politicians have been prophesying self-regulation towards more efficient cars for more than thirty years now. What we got instead was a SUV boom and cheating on emission tests.

bertjk 7y ago

Turkey also: https://www.engadget.com/2019/12/29/turkey-togg-electric-crossover-suv/ https://www.engadget.com/2019/12/29/turkey-togg-electric-cro... I'm starting to think that the most significant consequence of the mechanical simplicity of electric cars is not the additional per-car reliability or potentially lower TCO. It is that manufacturing cars has suddenly become accessible to a much wider and geopolitically more diverse set of industrial bases. Maybe electric cars will be the new textiles where developing economies are concerned.

buboard 7y ago
> manufacturing cars has suddenly become accessible to a much wider and geopolitically more diverse set of industrial bases It has always been. German companies manufacture parts or cars in cheap countries (like turkey). Yet there are no well-known hungarian or turkish cars
sho_hn 7y ago
Both the Turkey EV (TOGG) and the Vietnamese EV (VinFast) are prototype cars made by Pinafarina in Italy, I believe. They're not as fully homegrown as one might think.
pfdietz 7y ago
It also reminds me, at least a bit, of what happened to film and cameras when digital imaging took over.

agumonkey 7y ago

The world is weird and complex, BMW had some L2 autonomous system late 80s. Nobody cared it ended up on a shelf somewhere.

ChuckNorris89 7y ago
BMW also didn't care about it since the main point of the BMW brand was driver engagement and sporty feel aimed at purists. Autonomous driving goes against that mantra and was seen as something uncool, for old people who couldn't drive or something like that and would get you ridiculed by driving purists. That, however, was before sporty cars became luxury cars and vice versa.
- agumonkey 7y ago
  Very good points

nosianu 7y ago

> The Germany car industry should have seen the writing on the wall But that does not change anything! The point is less workers will be needed. What difference does it make to "see the writing on the wall"? I don't even see any reason to look into the claim itself - it's completely irrelevant. Even if they adapt perfectly and Germany becomes a happy 100% electrical-car country, we will lose a lot of employment in the car industry.

growlist 7y ago
> we will lose a lot of employment in the car industry This only increases the importance of hanging onto as many as possible of the shrunken pool of jobs that will be left.

ossworkerrights 7y ago

Thanks to Germany, eastern Europe is a dumping ground for low quality, highly polluting German cars. A sad state of affairs and it shows just how the EU is biased towards a handful of countries.

ChuckNorris89 7y ago
It's not really Germany's fault. It's our fault in the East for the vanity of prioritizing low cost second hand luxury vehicles above our health and not holding the government accountable for the lack of a functioning public transport system. The Romanian railway system is a national embarrassment. Germany isn't dumping anything, it's just supplying the demand coming from Eastern Europeans who make lengthy trips there with platform trailers to bring back cheap second hand luxury vehicles that are now longer economically viable there. I've seen way more BMW X5s and Audi Q7s in Romanian cities than in my time working in Germany and Austria combined. I don't think the Germans came and shoved them down our throats. Where Germany is at fault is its lack of action after Dieselgate since it decided to protect VW and its executives rather than the health of the EU citizens that are still having their lungs stuffed with diesel particulate from the tens of thousands of TDI engines happily roaming around us.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- ossworkerrights 7y ago
  Countries have laws for exporting used electronics exactly so poor countries dont become dumping grounds. The same should be the case for intra eu vehicles. The German government is blocking such an initiative using the EU, and clocked or high polluting vehicles end up in countries such as a Romania. Poverty and corruption in that country are rampant but that is no excuse to dumping low quality german cars there. Edit: the gov of romania has already tried taxing old vehicles but was pushed back by the eu. Blind obedience to the eu and self blame wont fix your country.
  - petre 7y ago