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Wished such news articles would ways contextualize such news with a graph of the fire activity in previous years, if not in the entire recorded history. I want

Wished such news articles would ways contextualize such news with a graph of the fire activity in previous years, if not in the entire recorded history. I want a figure how many standard deviations this is above the mean. Edit: Something like this: https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/145000/145998/australia_vir_2019339.png https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/145000/14... Source: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145998/fires-take-a-toll-on-australian-forests https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145998/fires-take-a...

netsharc 7y ago
I can't help but ask if you have an agenda.. is it to say "See, the NASA graph shows it's not much worse than previous years, climate change is nothing to worry about!"? The graph starts in 2014, that's not exactly a "pre-climate-crisis" year...
- scrumbledober 7y ago
  it starts in 2014 and shows a pretty clear upward trend for such a short time period
- longtom 7y ago
  LOL, you guys have a really sensitive "climate denial sensor". I am about as critical of ignorant consumerism as it gets. For example I do not think millions of people need to travel >200 miles a day. But I am also aware that reducing consumerism is associated with a risk of mass unemployment and social unrest. Nonetheless I desire context. It's just my need as a nerd to get the full picture rather than "look at this scary context-less number".
  - majewsky 7y ago
    You want the full picture, yet post a graph that starts at 2014?
    - longtom 7y ago
      I wrote "something like this". Learn to read.
- hydgv 7y ago
  Pretending that fires have gone up 10x[] this year is an agenda, too []Yeah made up number, not the point
- nabla9 7y ago
  It's not an agenda. News sometimes miss important context. The Brazilian forest fires this year are a good example. It took weeks until we learned that the forest fires are not significantly worse than previous years. Brazil has been burning at the same rate for many years.
StreamBright 7y ago
Something like this? https://ibb.co/1dmJ1xJ https://ibb.co/1dmJ1xJ
- longtom 7y ago
  Thanks. Interesting how rare and extreme these events are. This suggests a runway process is involved in that the fire spreads and multiplies in just the right conditions, but presumably it takes a while for nature to grow enough to become vulnerable to a large fire again? Not enough data here to tell for sure. It is interesting that some plants have evolved to require fire to survive and reproduce (pyrophytic plants), so wild fire is by no means unnatural. There does not seem to be a positive trend here.
  - viraptor 7y ago
    So graphs like that should be read together with information about how the bush management changed over time. See this long thread for example: https://twitter.com/JediJeremy/status/1208997157346242561 https://twitter.com/JediJeremy/status/1208997157346242561 I believe in recent past we've gone through: "everything's burning, let's put it out", "we've had massive fires, let's do planned burns", and now "let's defund organisations that can do effective bush management". This will explain some of the changes visible. The current area is due to the buildup nobody managed - neither by government organised burns, nor fire stick farming.
    - salty_biscuits 7y ago
      The window for conducting planned burns has also been shrinking over time (either too dry and it will run away or too wet).
  - StreamBright 7y ago
    Yep this is exactly it. There is a periodic phenomenon going on here. We do not measure or collect data long enough to look at it like that. I think the trend is hard to spot here.
tejohnso 7y ago
That's not what this article is about. Sometimes you have to go looking for an article specifically about the historical context. Here's one I found on initial search [1]. > For the forests and woodlands in the eastern half of the state, this is unprecedented. [1]: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/22/australia-bushfires-factcheck-are-this-years-fires-unprecedented https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/22/austr...
- longtom 7y ago
  Doesn't matter what the post is about. Always gimme context pls
nabla9 7y ago
BBC has nice info-graphic comparing different Australian fires. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50951043 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50951043 direct link to image: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/ECEF/production/_110355606_fires_australia_history_dec31_640-3x-nc.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/ECEF/production/...

netsharc 7y ago

I can't help but ask if you have an agenda.. is it to say "See, the NASA graph shows it's not much worse than previous years, climate change is nothing to worry about!"? The graph starts in 2014, that's not exactly a "pre-climate-crisis" year...

scrumbledober 7y ago
it starts in 2014 and shows a pretty clear upward trend for such a short time period
longtom 7y ago
LOL, you guys have a really sensitive "climate denial sensor". I am about as critical of ignorant consumerism as it gets. For example I do not think millions of people need to travel >200 miles a day. But I am also aware that reducing consumerism is associated with a risk of mass unemployment and social unrest. Nonetheless I desire context. It's just my need as a nerd to get the full picture rather than "look at this scary context-less number".
- majewsky 7y ago
  You want the full picture, yet post a graph that starts at 2014?
  - longtom 7y ago
    I wrote "something like this". Learn to read.
hydgv 7y ago
Pretending that fires have gone up 10x[] this year is an agenda, too []Yeah made up number, not the point
nabla9 7y ago
It's not an agenda. News sometimes miss important context. The Brazilian forest fires this year are a good example. It took weeks until we learned that the forest fires are not significantly worse than previous years. Brazil has been burning at the same rate for many years.

StreamBright 7y ago

Something like this? https://ibb.co/1dmJ1xJ https://ibb.co/1dmJ1xJ

longtom 7y ago
Thanks. Interesting how rare and extreme these events are. This suggests a runway process is involved in that the fire spreads and multiplies in just the right conditions, but presumably it takes a while for nature to grow enough to become vulnerable to a large fire again? Not enough data here to tell for sure. It is interesting that some plants have evolved to require fire to survive and reproduce (pyrophytic plants), so wild fire is by no means unnatural. There does not seem to be a positive trend here.
- viraptor 7y ago
  So graphs like that should be read together with information about how the bush management changed over time. See this long thread for example: https://twitter.com/JediJeremy/status/1208997157346242561 https://twitter.com/JediJeremy/status/1208997157346242561 I believe in recent past we've gone through: "everything's burning, let's put it out", "we've had massive fires, let's do planned burns", and now "let's defund organisations that can do effective bush management". This will explain some of the changes visible. The current area is due to the buildup nobody managed - neither by government organised burns, nor fire stick farming.
  - salty_biscuits 7y ago
    The window for conducting planned burns has also been shrinking over time (either too dry and it will run away or too wet).
- StreamBright 7y ago
  Yep this is exactly it. There is a periodic phenomenon going on here. We do not measure or collect data long enough to look at it like that. I think the trend is hard to spot here.

tejohnso 7y ago

That's not what this article is about. Sometimes you have to go looking for an article specifically about the historical context. Here's one I found on initial search [1]. > For the forests and woodlands in the eastern half of the state, this is unprecedented. [1]: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/22/australia-bushfires-factcheck-are-this-years-fires-unprecedented https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/22/austr...

longtom 7y ago
Doesn't matter what the post is about. Always gimme context pls

nabla9 7y ago

BBC has nice info-graphic comparing different Australian fires. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50951043 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50951043 direct link to image: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/ECEF/production/_110355606_fires_australia_history_dec31_640-3x-nc.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/ECEF/production/...