I suspect SMIC or another Chinese foundry will get there over the next 10-20 years. China justifyably considers it a strategic priority and a matter of nationa

I suspect SMIC or another Chinese foundry will get there over the next 10-20 years. China justifyably considers it a strategic priority and a matter of national security and will put in as much money as it takes to pull people and IP out of Taiwan, South Korea, and the US to make it happen. The closest parallels are display fabrication, where BOE and CSOT have swallowed the LCD market and BOE is on track to compete with Samsung on OLED market share over the next five years. Similarly, there are a handful of fabs in China now starting to ramp DRAM and flash on competitive process nodes.