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Youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jobckq4USM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jobckq4USM TBH myopic analysis that doesn't acknowledge subsequent

Youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jobckq4USM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jobckq4USM TBH myopic analysis that doesn't acknowledge subsequent protests from around the world have tried to incorporate HK tactics are getting crushed left and right. Military intervention, hundreds dead, media and internet black outs, to the utter indifference of western media or public sentiment. There's a slide acknowledging other protests at 1:25:30, "If you care any of these things, then you should care about it in more than one place". But we know this is demonstrably not true. Operationally, there's not much to learn except that HK police and the mainland has been forced to be extremely lenient and permissible (by most relative standards) due to structural factors like HKs unique geopolitical position, the geographic strengths of a city state, or other political constraints that put comprehensive crackdown off the table for HK. The operational lessons, which this talk is about, will be clearer over the next few years. I surmise the the government will be able to exploit the massive data collection on the ground after things settle down. Retaliation will come in a variety of ways i.e. employment opportunities and other algorithmic biases. Multinationals in HK are already reluctant to hire locals because it may jeopardize their operations in the mainland (like Cathay).

hjkjhwe9084 7y ago
> I surmise the the government will be able to exploit the massive data collection on the ground after things settle down. True, the deadliest enemies are invisible. I bet that at this moment at least 10 universities in mainland China are using the massive surveillance data being collected (security cameras, phone location data, ...) to figure out how to track protestors back. And even if there is no true leader, surely there are a bunch of people who are more lider-ish than the rest. Some networking analysis, like NSA pioneered surely can be applied here. China has the time advantage, Hong Kong is not going anywhere. A brutal Chinese intervention would be the worse possible mistake for China to make, it will be hard for the West to ignore that. But keep the policing relatively low key, and the other countries don't have an in angle.
- magicsmoke 7y ago
  The operational tactics and technological tools China develops by experimenting on HK are probably going to be packaged and sold to foreign governments. If HK is pacified successfully, a few years later there'll be Chinese consultants selling their services around the world, and exhibit A of their marketing decks will be HK. This could be a massive cash cow that'll give China a high tech product they could sell that Western democracies can't or won't develop. In fact, they might even be customers. Imagine being able to maintain a veneer of democracy while using data analysis and surveillance to select dangerous individuals to disappear. Or passing laws to restrict the liberties of citizens secure in the knowledge that the resulting protest intensities can be predicted and managed.

hjkjhwe9084 7y ago

> I surmise the the government will be able to exploit the massive data collection on the ground after things settle down. True, the deadliest enemies are invisible. I bet that at this moment at least 10 universities in mainland China are using the massive surveillance data being collected (security cameras, phone location data, ...) to figure out how to track protestors back. And even if there is no true leader, surely there are a bunch of people who are more lider-ish than the rest. Some networking analysis, like NSA pioneered surely can be applied here. China has the time advantage, Hong Kong is not going anywhere. A brutal Chinese intervention would be the worse possible mistake for China to make, it will be hard for the West to ignore that. But keep the policing relatively low key, and the other countries don't have an in angle.

magicsmoke 7y ago
The operational tactics and technological tools China develops by experimenting on HK are probably going to be packaged and sold to foreign governments. If HK is pacified successfully, a few years later there'll be Chinese consultants selling their services around the world, and exhibit A of their marketing decks will be HK. This could be a massive cash cow that'll give China a high tech product they could sell that Western democracies can't or won't develop. In fact, they might even be customers. Imagine being able to maintain a veneer of democracy while using data analysis and surveillance to select dangerous individuals to disappear. Or passing laws to restrict the liberties of citizens secure in the knowledge that the resulting protest intensities can be predicted and managed.