I don’t see why this is reasonable, but for what it’s worth my recollection of those years does not align much with yours. Home price indexes in Cupertino were

I don’t see why this is reasonable, but for what it’s worth my recollection of those years does not align much with yours. Home price indexes in Cupertino were down 15% tops even when mortgages were nearly unavailable, and SF city population peaked in 2001 and bottomed in 2004 at a count equivalent to 1999 (a total loss of 11,000 people, ~10%). This is even with Silicon Gultch hysteria. Also, the blog post doesn’t claim the change in salaries will be linked to a recession at all —- it’s claiming the supply demand dynamics of the SWE labor marketplace will change somehow. It’s hard for me to reconcile that with the fact that PMs are paid quite well at technology firms that pay their engineers well, and they don’t have the same skill barriers to entry.