> SpaceX does not enter this picture, as they use liquid fuel rockets, not solid fuel. The point of Brilliant Pebbles is to put several thousand ABM satellites

> SpaceX does not enter this picture, as they use liquid fuel rockets, not solid fuel. The point of Brilliant Pebbles is to put several thousand ABM satellites into permanent orbit. This can, and should, be done with liquid fuel rockets. > The only rational thing to do if you have a 99.999% capable ABM shield is to perform a decapitation strike, since you know this advantage cannot be permanent. And therefore a rational opponent will perceive such a shield as a mortal danger, and will need to perform a pre-emptive strike before the shield is in place. From their point of view, once the shield is up, they'll be hit anyway, better strike first. The saner alternative is to seek second-strike capability that cannot be intercepted by that shield. Such as hypersonic glide strike vehicles. And the reason Starship is such a threat is that once there exists a proof-of-concept ABM satellite, a launch vehicle that can take up 150 tons per vehicle, several times a day, times multiple vehicles working at multiple launch sites, can deploy Brilliant Pebbles in a few hours.