5 ms·

> it will be possible for a person to go to sleep in a world where ICBMs work and wake up in a world where one power has a five-nines capable shield against the

> it will be possible for a person to go to sleep in a world where ICBMs work and wake up in a world where one power has a five-nines capable shield against them. The only rational thing to do if you have a 99.999% capable ABM shield is to perform a decapitation strike, since you know this advantage cannot be permanent. And therefore a rational opponent will perceive such a shield as a mortal danger, and will need to perform a pre-emptive strike before the shield is in place. From their point of view, once the shield is up, they'll be hit anyway, better strike first. SpaceX does not enter this picture, as they use liquid fuel rockets, not solid fuel. But from Russia's point of view, it's hard to truly believe the US is not secretly seeking such a shield, no matter what assurances they receive that the US missile defense is only limited in scope. The ABM defense is a matter of capability first, and quantity after. Once the capability is properly tuned up (and the US appears to be close to that point), the quantity could be built in a sprint of 12 months. This is not a likely scenario, but it's a plausible one, and Russia needs to plan for it.

Tuna-Fish 7y ago
> SpaceX does not enter this picture, as they use liquid fuel rockets, not solid fuel. The point of Brilliant Pebbles is to put several thousand ABM satellites into permanent orbit. This can, and should, be done with liquid fuel rockets. > The only rational thing to do if you have a 99.999% capable ABM shield is to perform a decapitation strike, since you know this advantage cannot be permanent. And therefore a rational opponent will perceive such a shield as a mortal danger, and will need to perform a pre-emptive strike before the shield is in place. From their point of view, once the shield is up, they'll be hit anyway, better strike first. The saner alternative is to seek second-strike capability that cannot be intercepted by that shield. Such as hypersonic glide strike vehicles. And the reason Starship is such a threat is that once there exists a proof-of-concept ABM satellite, a launch vehicle that can take up 150 tons per vehicle, several times a day, times multiple vehicles working at multiple launch sites, can deploy Brilliant Pebbles in a few hours.
redis_mlc 7y ago
> And therefore a rational opponent will perceive such a shield as a mortal danger So let me explain how nuclear geopolitics actually works ... Neither Moscow nor Washington believe in MAD, and never have. This became apparent during the talks between Reagan and Gorbachev (or whoever wasn't drunk at the time.) Both sides thought it was folly to not have an actual defensive capability besides game-theory wonks. Thus Moscow has a shield - an ABM system in a ring around the city. The US SDI "Star Wars" program was/is likely successful for space-based kinetic defense, but not the original laser stuff. What Moscow doesn't like is changes to the status quo, like the early Shuttle doing sudden LEO maneuvers. Buran was developed basically to bomb Washington without notice, as retaliation for the Shuttle being able to do that to Moscow. And Putin is a very different adversary than a bunch of old drunks distracted with an imploding empire.
LargoLasskhyfv 7y ago
How is whichever fuel SpaceX uses relevant to this? As i understand it this is about the massive launch capability with decreased cost. So the Space Force could deliver whatever it seems fit to the task be using whatever SpaceX offers as a launch provider. Maybe modularized, in some sort of container, which then deploys them in one go. Like the microsats of today, or Starlink, only on a larger scale. With a few launches, or to be sneaky and sure with a few in parallel at the same time? Am i wrong?

Tuna-Fish 7y ago

> SpaceX does not enter this picture, as they use liquid fuel rockets, not solid fuel. The point of Brilliant Pebbles is to put several thousand ABM satellites into permanent orbit. This can, and should, be done with liquid fuel rockets. > The only rational thing to do if you have a 99.999% capable ABM shield is to perform a decapitation strike, since you know this advantage cannot be permanent. And therefore a rational opponent will perceive such a shield as a mortal danger, and will need to perform a pre-emptive strike before the shield is in place. From their point of view, once the shield is up, they'll be hit anyway, better strike first. The saner alternative is to seek second-strike capability that cannot be intercepted by that shield. Such as hypersonic glide strike vehicles. And the reason Starship is such a threat is that once there exists a proof-of-concept ABM satellite, a launch vehicle that can take up 150 tons per vehicle, several times a day, times multiple vehicles working at multiple launch sites, can deploy Brilliant Pebbles in a few hours.

redis_mlc 7y ago

> And therefore a rational opponent will perceive such a shield as a mortal danger So let me explain how nuclear geopolitics actually works ... Neither Moscow nor Washington believe in MAD, and never have. This became apparent during the talks between Reagan and Gorbachev (or whoever wasn't drunk at the time.) Both sides thought it was folly to not have an actual defensive capability besides game-theory wonks. Thus Moscow has a shield - an ABM system in a ring around the city. The US SDI "Star Wars" program was/is likely successful for space-based kinetic defense, but not the original laser stuff. What Moscow doesn't like is changes to the status quo, like the early Shuttle doing sudden LEO maneuvers. Buran was developed basically to bomb Washington without notice, as retaliation for the Shuttle being able to do that to Moscow. And Putin is a very different adversary than a bunch of old drunks distracted with an imploding empire.

LargoLasskhyfv 7y ago

How is whichever fuel SpaceX uses relevant to this? As i understand it this is about the massive launch capability with decreased cost. So the Space Force could deliver whatever it seems fit to the task be using whatever SpaceX offers as a launch provider. Maybe modularized, in some sort of container, which then deploys them in one go. Like the microsats of today, or Starlink, only on a larger scale. With a few launches, or to be sneaky and sure with a few in parallel at the same time? Am i wrong?