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Other, less dramatic kinds of growth can appear exponential in its early stages. I'm always amazed at Internet growth data that are only fit to an exponential -
by mayank 16y ago
Other, less dramatic kinds of growth can appear exponential in its early stages. I'm always amazed at Internet growth data that are only fit to an exponential -- "at this rate, our startup is going to take over the universe in five years!"
Has everyone forgotten about logistic growth? There is probably a ceiling to most growth, wouldn't it make more sense to ask where it lies? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
- endtime 16y agoI agree with you in general, but you picked a funny example to make this case - generation of information doesn't seem like something which will level off after a while.
- mayank 16y agoThe rate at which it is being generated might. Edit: if you think of the logistic function as modeling the rate we create information, this is one possible "story": initially there's slow growth due to technology. Then the technology picks up, and there's the exponential phase we're seeing right now. That settles into a nice linear trend as the tech matures. Finally, we hit either natural (e.g., satiation) or technological limitations and that slows the rate of growth. At the very limit, we're still creating information, but at a constant rate. The rate of growth might be near 0, but the rate of production is still bloody high.
- endtime 16y agoSorry, that is what I (obviously?) meant. It would have been trivial to state that information will continue to be generated.