3 ms·

Why is this so true. I usually assume that when a large percentage of people do something that seems dumb, it's usually because there is some reason I don't und

Why is this so true. I usually assume that when a large percentage of people do something that seems dumb, it's usually because there is some reason I don't understand and not because they all coincidentally decided to be idiots in the same way. Occasionally there is a common pitfall that does cause them all to be dumb in the same way, and more often there's a good reason. In this case though, it's so common but I can't see how there could possibly be a reason for this. Maybe tech companies just tend to have really small meeting rooms with only a few chairs in them.

overgard 7y ago
I think the problem is this: if you talk to any good software developer (or scientist for that matter), they're always going to speak in probabilities and hedge everything. And they're absolutely correct to do this, because it's the reality. The problem is, the business people (generally) have no interest in this. They're interested in certainties. They aren't being irrational either -- they need to go out and sell, raise money, etc., and to do that they need to be able to say "we're shipping on december 5th" and "absolutely we can do that for you". Having the developers say "well, uh, maybe we can do that in three months but we don't really know" makes their lives 10x harder even if it's true. So this is where project managers come into the picture. They don't promise the most efficient use of human resources. What they offer is a predictable use of human resources. In reality this drags everyone down into a very gloomy mediocrity and leads to ineffectual organizations. But to the business person, it seems great because they gain the illusion of control. In that light, our current predicament makes perfect sense: project managers are the shamanic priests doing a rain dance, and developers are the weather. The weather stays unpredictable, but if it happens to rain the shaman can take the credit, and if the drought remains, it's because the ritual wasn't done correctly, you see. The illusion of control is the product they're selling. What the managers are buying is someone that says "yes, we can have it rain on the 19th" instead of talking to someone that says "we can predict the weather about a day out, maybe" (God I hope no project manager I work with ends up reading this, heh).
- Fire-Dragon-DoL 7y ago
  Stupid question: can't the businessman do its job? I mean, it's not like the market is constant everywhere, they must be dealing with probabilities too.

overgard 7y ago

I think the problem is this: if you talk to any good software developer (or scientist for that matter), they're always going to speak in probabilities and hedge everything. And they're absolutely correct to do this, because it's the reality. The problem is, the business people (generally) have no interest in this. They're interested in certainties. They aren't being irrational either -- they need to go out and sell, raise money, etc., and to do that they need to be able to say "we're shipping on december 5th" and "absolutely we can do that for you". Having the developers say "well, uh, maybe we can do that in three months but we don't really know" makes their lives 10x harder even if it's true. So this is where project managers come into the picture. They don't promise the most efficient use of human resources. What they offer is a predictable use of human resources. In reality this drags everyone down into a very gloomy mediocrity and leads to ineffectual organizations. But to the business person, it seems great because they gain the illusion of control. In that light, our current predicament makes perfect sense: project managers are the shamanic priests doing a rain dance, and developers are the weather. The weather stays unpredictable, but if it happens to rain the shaman can take the credit, and if the drought remains, it's because the ritual wasn't done correctly, you see. The illusion of control is the product they're selling. What the managers are buying is someone that says "yes, we can have it rain on the 19th" instead of talking to someone that says "we can predict the weather about a day out, maybe" (God I hope no project manager I work with ends up reading this, heh).

Fire-Dragon-DoL 7y ago
Stupid question: can't the businessman do its job? I mean, it's not like the market is constant everywhere, they must be dealing with probabilities too.