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> At some point over the past ten or fifteen years, the Democrats switched their focus Clinton was elected on explicit Third Way positions nearly 30 years ago.

> At some point over the past ten or fifteen years, the Democrats switched their focus Clinton was elected on explicit Third Way positions nearly 30 years ago. If you think something changed in the past 10-15, you're falling for GOP propaganda. What you're noticing is the democrats finding a new base a decade after losing their working class supporters, through a combination of Third Way politics, the Republican Southern Strategy. The GOP saw this coming and stoked / capitulated to increasing racist elements of the party during Obama's presidency. This is the only major change in the past decade. (Well, the democrats aren't really that smart - it's not so much they're finding a new base as they're left with the ones the new GOP ideology intentionally excludes. As a party, they are doing a terrible job mobilizing this!)

war1025 7y ago
I think Southern racism has very little to do with the Republican shift in the Midwest. We've had heavy hispanic immigration for twenty years and they've all been fairly well integrated. I would guess what actually happened to the older people I know is that they grew up in union jobs at factories that got sent to Mexico after NAFTA went through. Unions lean heavy Democrat. When the union fails you, I think that leads fairly directly to losing faith in the Democratic party. Further, the insistence by many within the party that the only reason someone would want to leave the Democratic party is that they're racists really doesn't do them any favors.
- morelisp 7y ago
  I agree that NAFTA is one major inflection point, but it supports 25 years ago, not your 10-15. I mean, I'm in full agreement that the democrats as a party have abandoned anything but the neoliberal project - I just also think if you expect anything but isolationism and racism out of the GOP - neither of which is good for the working class - you've fallen for their big lie. > I think Southern racism has very little to do with the Republican shift in the Midwest. I didn't say "Southern racism", I said "Southern Strategy", which is a specific GOP maneuver to pick up white working-class voters from the 50s onwards, as they calculated it would be better to give up the black and civil-rights focused voter base they were already losing, to pick up the white working-class, primarily agricultural, voters alienated in the South. They used existing racism, but they also stoked it. It was extremely effective (to the point you can even use "Southern racism" as a shorthand and "everyone knows" what you mean). While they mostly couldn't predict a similar opportunity in more industrial labor in the north 2-3 decades later, they definitely didn't miss the chance when it arose - and again, they've used existing racism, but also heightened it in places it was previously marginal.
  - war1025 7y ago
    > I agree that NAFTA is one major inflection point, but it supports 25 years ago, not your 10-15. Things take a while to have an impact. The factory my dad worked at for 25 years didn't go to Mexico until 2007 [1]. Manufacturing in the area really didn't start moving to Mexico until the financial crisis. Whether as a result of the crisis itself or just a convenient side effect, I don't know. > I didn't say "Southern racism", I said "Southern Strategy" I know the Southern Strategy. My point is that people in the northern states are much less motivated by racism than you imply. You can choose to believe that or not, but I firmly believe that its true. [1] https://globegazette.com/news/imi-cornelius-to-close-mason-city-plant/article_b1380796-5216-5cdc-b915-43b2c3509f09.html https://globegazette.com/news/imi-cornelius-to-close-mason-c...
AnimalMuppet 7y ago
> If you think something changed in the past 10-15, you're falling for GOP propaganda. You think that Democrats have not moved in the past 10-15 years? You think that the idea that they have is merely Republican propaganda? I think you haven't been paying attention. Or maybe you were paying too much attention. 15 years ago, AOC wasn't even old enough to vote. Were there Democrats in the House who held the same positions 15 years ago? Perhaps so. They didn't have the press attention that AOC gets, though. So they may have been there, but in the eyes of the public they weren't "the position" of the Democrats. Instead, they were fringe. Now AOC gets as much press coverage as Nancy Pelosi (maybe more, before impeachment). To the average person, AOC and people like her now represent the Democratic Party. That's a massive shift, at least in perceptions, if not in actual position. And I think the actual position has shifted, too. There are considerably more of the farther-left people like AOC, both in congress and running for president. The median Democratic officeholder position has shifted left. (Or so I strongly suspect. I assert it without statistical evidence.)
- youdontknowtho 7y ago
  I'm trying to understand how you see Republican positions changing over time as well. From the perspective of policy or cultural issues. If I grant your point about how the last 15 years has seen a resurgent left, something that I'm stoked about, could you explain a little about how you've seen the republicans change over 10 to 20 years?
  - username90 7y ago
    Republicans just lowered taxes for the working class and increased it for the management class. How is that typical capitalist right wing? It was basically tailor made to hurt the coastal elites since only there do a significant number earn enough to get the extra taxes.
  - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
    Honestly? I see Republicans unable to explain their own positions, perhaps because they don't understand it themselves. I see them stumbling around, too often not operating on principle or thought, and sometimes stumbling into saying things that manage to win an election. It's unfair to say that that's all Republicans. But it's some of them, and it fits the one that collects all the press at the moment...

war1025 7y ago

I think Southern racism has very little to do with the Republican shift in the Midwest. We've had heavy hispanic immigration for twenty years and they've all been fairly well integrated. I would guess what actually happened to the older people I know is that they grew up in union jobs at factories that got sent to Mexico after NAFTA went through. Unions lean heavy Democrat. When the union fails you, I think that leads fairly directly to losing faith in the Democratic party. Further, the insistence by many within the party that the only reason someone would want to leave the Democratic party is that they're racists really doesn't do them any favors.

morelisp 7y ago
I agree that NAFTA is one major inflection point, but it supports 25 years ago, not your 10-15. I mean, I'm in full agreement that the democrats as a party have abandoned anything but the neoliberal project - I just also think if you expect anything but isolationism and racism out of the GOP - neither of which is good for the working class - you've fallen for their big lie. > I think Southern racism has very little to do with the Republican shift in the Midwest. I didn't say "Southern racism", I said "Southern Strategy", which is a specific GOP maneuver to pick up white working-class voters from the 50s onwards, as they calculated it would be better to give up the black and civil-rights focused voter base they were already losing, to pick up the white working-class, primarily agricultural, voters alienated in the South. They used existing racism, but they also stoked it. It was extremely effective (to the point you can even use "Southern racism" as a shorthand and "everyone knows" what you mean). While they mostly couldn't predict a similar opportunity in more industrial labor in the north 2-3 decades later, they definitely didn't miss the chance when it arose - and again, they've used existing racism, but also heightened it in places it was previously marginal.
- war1025 7y ago
  > I agree that NAFTA is one major inflection point, but it supports 25 years ago, not your 10-15. Things take a while to have an impact. The factory my dad worked at for 25 years didn't go to Mexico until 2007 [1]. Manufacturing in the area really didn't start moving to Mexico until the financial crisis. Whether as a result of the crisis itself or just a convenient side effect, I don't know. > I didn't say "Southern racism", I said "Southern Strategy" I know the Southern Strategy. My point is that people in the northern states are much less motivated by racism than you imply. You can choose to believe that or not, but I firmly believe that its true. [1] https://globegazette.com/news/imi-cornelius-to-close-mason-city-plant/article_b1380796-5216-5cdc-b915-43b2c3509f09.html https://globegazette.com/news/imi-cornelius-to-close-mason-c...

AnimalMuppet 7y ago

> If you think something changed in the past 10-15, you're falling for GOP propaganda. You think that Democrats have not moved in the past 10-15 years? You think that the idea that they have is merely Republican propaganda? I think you haven't been paying attention. Or maybe you were paying too much attention. 15 years ago, AOC wasn't even old enough to vote. Were there Democrats in the House who held the same positions 15 years ago? Perhaps so. They didn't have the press attention that AOC gets, though. So they may have been there, but in the eyes of the public they weren't "the position" of the Democrats. Instead, they were fringe. Now AOC gets as much press coverage as Nancy Pelosi (maybe more, before impeachment). To the average person, AOC and people like her now represent the Democratic Party. That's a massive shift, at least in perceptions, if not in actual position. And I think the actual position has shifted, too. There are considerably more of the farther-left people like AOC, both in congress and running for president. The median Democratic officeholder position has shifted left. (Or so I strongly suspect. I assert it without statistical evidence.)

youdontknowtho 7y ago
I'm trying to understand how you see Republican positions changing over time as well. From the perspective of policy or cultural issues. If I grant your point about how the last 15 years has seen a resurgent left, something that I'm stoked about, could you explain a little about how you've seen the republicans change over 10 to 20 years?
- username90 7y ago
  Republicans just lowered taxes for the working class and increased it for the management class. How is that typical capitalist right wing? It was basically tailor made to hurt the coastal elites since only there do a significant number earn enough to get the extra taxes.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  Honestly? I see Republicans unable to explain their own positions, perhaps because they don't understand it themselves. I see them stumbling around, too often not operating on principle or thought, and sometimes stumbling into saying things that manage to win an election. It's unfair to say that that's all Republicans. But it's some of them, and it fits the one that collects all the press at the moment...