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Ask HN: What will be the stock of the 2020s?
So the 2010s were an uninterrupted bull-market in stocks and had Netflix delivering +4.000% in return. What will the best performing S&P500 stock of the 2020s?
- kangnkodos 7y agoMCD - McDonalds will manage to eke out a small gain over the decade, and be the winner of the 2020's. Following a recession, all new investors will panic and withdraw all their money and keep it out for years. They didn't know the market could be down two years in a row. Boomers reach a phase in their lives where they are only taking money out of the stock market, and spending it on Chinese goods. Inflation picks up, and smart money moves from stocks to gold and then bonds. This combination will lead to one of the worst decades for stocks since the great depression. 2028 and 2029 sees money starting to go back into the market. But the decade as a whole sees low gains. But even in a recession, people still treat themselves by eating out at McDonalds and their new $5 Keto menu.
- tomhoward 7y agoThis probably isn't the right audience for a discussion involving speculation about speculation :)
- chvid 7y agoIt is a once a decade question so I am hoping it is alright ...
- psv1 7y ago> What will the best performing S&P500 stock of the 2020s? If you had asked the same question 10 years ago, no one would have guessed Netflix... because it wasn't in the S&P500 at the time.
- p1esk 7y agoSome AI startup.
- psv1 7y agoVery unlikely. 1. The probability of some paradigm changing breakthrough in AI over the next 10 years - the kind that can potentially give you the massive market returns - is extremely low. 2. The breakthroughs that will happen will most likely come from the big companies with massive budgets and talented research teams. AI startup are fighting a losing battle.
- p1esk 7y agoWhat you said has always been true, in every field. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook - all of them competed with big companies when they started and none of them relied on any single paradigm changing breakthrough, yet they managed to change paradigms.
- robjan 7y agoIf we knew then it wouldn't return 4k%. Anything that's already known is priced in.
- ibaikov 7y agoWriting this for myself to check in few years: Energy breakthrough making it cheaper - everything needs energy to function, that's probably an obvious pick. Internet in rural places - access to internet is needed for everything: new jobs, entertainment, services, goods etc. If there'll be a way to access internet in rural places all over the world - it'll probably be one of the best companies (thinking starlink or something similar, since preferably you'll need low latency). Content production or content delivery - people will always want entertainment, ie games, movies or streams. It is very far from ideal both in production and delivery. Solving it will give insane reach and insane amounts of money. Reimagination of hiring and changing professions. Probably another social network - people are not satisfied, someone has to try.
- rahulchhabra07 7y ago> Probably another social network - people are not satisfied, someone has to try. What do you expect out of the new social network?
- derision 7y agoAMD and many other semiconductors. I'm up 500% on my semiconductor portfolio and it's still early, there's a lot of emerging smaller companies getting involved now, from FPGAs to potential x86 competitors. The foundries and supply chain are doing great too
- PascLeRasc 7y agoI'm putting together a spreadsheet of semiconductor and other hardware manufacturing stocks and weighting them by Glassdoor rankings of company culture, those will be my long-term picks. So far Analog Devices and Cirrus Logic are looking very strong. And Apple of course.
- derision 7y agoI've been building a position in Lattice since $6, it's $19 today. Jim Anderson left AMD to be CEO there. I bought on the chance there's a future merge/acquisition but they're doing great work regardless
- stuwon 7y agoWhat are your thoughts on the near Canyon Bridge acquisition and Trump block?
- PascLeRasc 7y agoWow, you might be right, but I've never seen a P/E ratio that high (125). Do you think it might be due for a correction?
- purplezooey 7y agoExcept much of this is fake and suffers from selection bias.
- PascLeRasc 7y agoWelcome to speculation.
- xtracto 7y agoMy take is on health tech related companies. Similar to frequency therapeutics and their fx322. I think this decade we will see the commoditisation of health improvements.