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I don't know if I buy that. Is there data that shows retail clerk wages declining over time? I happen to have a factory worker, airline stewardess, and retail c

by rdouble 16y ago

I don't know if I buy that. Is there data that shows retail clerk wages declining over time? I happen to have a factory worker, airline stewardess, and retail clerk in my extended family and their wages have all increased over the past 20 years. I mean, not by amazing amounts, but definitely I wouldn't say they are doing worse than they were before.

nostrademons 16y ago
Wages by industry: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.ceseeb2.txt Historical CPI: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt From 1964-2010, weekly manufacturing wages rose from $102.59 to $765.08/week. "Private service-providing" jobs (which includes retail) went from $98.10 to $606.14. Over that same time period, the CPI rose from an index of 30.9 to to 216.687, an increase of 7x. In real terms, retail wages have fallen by about 12%, manufacturing wages have just barely kept pace with inflation.
- yummyfajitas 16y ago
  CPI overestimated inflation by 130 basis points until 1996. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boskin_Commission http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boskin_Commission Correcting for this error, retail wages have risen 33% and manufacturing wages have increased about 50%.
  - nostrademons 16y ago
    It's really funny to have you arguing in one subthread that inflation is overestimated by the official numbers, and then have some other guy arguing in another subthread that inflation is underestimated by the official numbers: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2187047 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2187047 My position is basically that the CPI, like all statistics, is fundamentally inaccurate, but it's as likely to be biased high as it is to be biased low. I think you're both proving my point on this. :-) Anyway, the table I linked to was published last month, so presumably they've already taken the Boskin Commission findings into account and retroactively fixed the earlier numbers.
    - rdouble 16y ago
      I was more arguing that CPI is meaningless. My position on the economy is that if you bought your house 20 years ago, you can sit in it and buy all the junk you'll ever need, on even a shit salary. If you didn't buy a house 20 years ago, you never will, but you can rent someone else's house and buy all the junk you'll ever need.
- rdouble 16y ago
  That's interesting. I will admit I am a CPI skeptic. I do not understand how it is being calculated. Half the stuff people buy today did not exist 20 years ago. There is such an abundance of the other stuff, it is always heavily discounted. Essential things that have obviously increased in price, like homes and food, are not included in the CPI. Is there a "CPI for Dummies" anywhere out there?
  - nostrademons 16y ago
    CPI for Dummies: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm
- tomjen3 16y ago
  Does the CPI take into account that cars have improved in fuel economy, that TVS are now in color and with a remote control, not to mention a lot bigger? Does the CPI take into account that a wristwatch today has more power than all IBMs computers in the mid sixties? Does the CPI take into account that $X that either didn't exist then, or has been so improved that it wouldn't be recognized? Try to compare it with the M3 money supply, shifted about 18 months ahead and that should give a much better idea of the real means of inflation.
  - jff 16y ago
    Not to derail, but the thing about wristwatches/pocket calculators being more powerful than the best sixties computer is a frequently-quoted and entirely wrong bit of BS. That is all.
    - samatman 16y ago
      Unless your wristwatch is an iPod Nano, which it easily could be. Or your pocket calculator is a recent-model TI or HP graphing calculator.
      - nostrademons 16y ago
        Both my wristwatch and my pocket calculator are my Nexus One, which has 4G of storage space (500x the top of the line System/360) and a 1 GHz processor (200x the top of the line System/360). It was free for me, but retailed for about $550 (1/2000th a top of the line System/360).
  - _delirium 16y ago
    The CPI indeed abstracts over the fact that the basket of goods available today isn't identical to the basket of goods identical 30 years ago. They're not all improvements, though. For example, the CPI doesn't take into account that the same car/gas combination drives you more slowly in Chicago than it used to, due to increased traffic; or that penicillin's efficacy has declined; or that a college diploma now largely serves the role that a high-school diploma served in 1975.

by rdouble 16y ago

nostrademons 16y ago

Wages by industry: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.ceseeb2.txt Historical CPI: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt From 1964-2010, weekly manufacturing wages rose from $102.59 to $765.08/week. "Private service-providing" jobs (which includes retail) went from $98.10 to $606.14. Over that same time period, the CPI rose from an index of 30.9 to to 216.687, an increase of 7x. In real terms, retail wages have fallen by about 12%, manufacturing wages have just barely kept pace with inflation.

yummyfajitas 16y ago
CPI overestimated inflation by 130 basis points until 1996. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boskin_Commission http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boskin_Commission Correcting for this error, retail wages have risen 33% and manufacturing wages have increased about 50%.
- nostrademons 16y ago
  It's really funny to have you arguing in one subthread that inflation is overestimated by the official numbers, and then have some other guy arguing in another subthread that inflation is underestimated by the official numbers: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2187047 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2187047 My position is basically that the CPI, like all statistics, is fundamentally inaccurate, but it's as likely to be biased high as it is to be biased low. I think you're both proving my point on this. :-) Anyway, the table I linked to was published last month, so presumably they've already taken the Boskin Commission findings into account and retroactively fixed the earlier numbers.
  - rdouble 16y ago
    I was more arguing that CPI is meaningless. My position on the economy is that if you bought your house 20 years ago, you can sit in it and buy all the junk you'll ever need, on even a shit salary. If you didn't buy a house 20 years ago, you never will, but you can rent someone else's house and buy all the junk you'll ever need.
rdouble 16y ago
That's interesting. I will admit I am a CPI skeptic. I do not understand how it is being calculated. Half the stuff people buy today did not exist 20 years ago. There is such an abundance of the other stuff, it is always heavily discounted. Essential things that have obviously increased in price, like homes and food, are not included in the CPI. Is there a "CPI for Dummies" anywhere out there?
- nostrademons 16y ago
  CPI for Dummies: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm
tomjen3 16y ago
Does the CPI take into account that cars have improved in fuel economy, that TVS are now in color and with a remote control, not to mention a lot bigger? Does the CPI take into account that a wristwatch today has more power than all IBMs computers in the mid sixties? Does the CPI take into account that $X that either didn't exist then, or has been so improved that it wouldn't be recognized? Try to compare it with the M3 money supply, shifted about 18 months ahead and that should give a much better idea of the real means of inflation.
- jff 16y ago
  Not to derail, but the thing about wristwatches/pocket calculators being more powerful than the best sixties computer is a frequently-quoted and entirely wrong bit of BS. That is all.
  - samatman 16y ago
    Unless your wristwatch is an iPod Nano, which it easily could be. Or your pocket calculator is a recent-model TI or HP graphing calculator.
    - nostrademons 16y ago
      Both my wristwatch and my pocket calculator are my Nexus One, which has 4G of storage space (500x the top of the line System/360) and a 1 GHz processor (200x the top of the line System/360). It was free for me, but retailed for about $550 (1/2000th a top of the line System/360).
- _delirium 16y ago
  The CPI indeed abstracts over the fact that the basket of goods available today isn't identical to the basket of goods identical 30 years ago. They're not all improvements, though. For example, the CPI doesn't take into account that the same car/gas combination drives you more slowly in Chicago than it used to, due to increased traffic; or that penicillin's efficacy has declined; or that a college diploma now largely serves the role that a high-school diploma served in 1975.