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Ask HN: Astrology? Yay, Nay or Meh?

For a ‘pseudo science’, astrology and horoscope chart making is heavily dependent on the gifts of CS. What would a marriage of AI and Astrology come up with..? Example: 1. astronomy says Jupiter, Saturn and mercury will be in the constellation of Sagittarius on Christmas Day. 2. Vedic astrology marks dec 25th as a day when a cluster forms in the house of Sagittarius with 6 celestial bodies(three planets, sun, moon and Ketu, the imaginary south node of moon). I don’t know astrology and so I don’t know what it means. And let’s assume that it is significant for some world event. A rational non believer would say that any events on that day is common place and a coincidence. But can AI map ‘coincidences’ to come up with a pattern? If it does, would it be able to transform a pseudo science into a valid science. In other words, what’s the difference between pattern recognition and prediction by AI vs pattern recognition and prediction by old world knowledge?

mindcrime 7y ago
Sure, you can parse over huge amounts of data and find all sorts of bogus "patterns" that don't actually mean anything[1][2]. But you can't make a valid science with real predictive power out of something where there is no actual causal connection between event A and event B. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spurious_correlation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spurious_correlation [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking
- jelliclesfarm 7y ago
  So you are saying astrology is ‘phony’? Learning Vedic astrology is my 2020 goal. I find it compelling enough to try to understand what is about...it’s something I have been looking into for 5-7 years and I am no longer skeptical about it. Can you change my mind? (Despite the awkward wording, it’s a sincere query)
  - krapp 7y ago
    Yes, astrology is phony. It's nothing but confirmation bias, placebo effect, paredolia and fraud. There is no known physical mechanism by which astrology could possibly work. Its claims have been thoroughly and repeatedly debunked through experimentation, and the psychological biases which cause it to appear true are well known and documented[0,1]. Note that this applies to all forms of astrology. Doesn't matter if it's Indian, Greek, Babylonian or generated by algorithms - the thesis that astrological phenomena and star patterns have an influence on human personality, behavior or events is demonstrably and universally false. Please spend 2020 learning something of value, rather than continuing to be intrigued by meaningless nonsense. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology_and_science https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology_and_science [1]https://www.relativelyinteresting.com/astrology-and-horoscopes-debunked/ https://www.relativelyinteresting.com/astrology-and-horoscop...
    - jelliclesfarm 7y ago
      [..] There is no known physical mechanism by which astrology could possibly work.[..] - So this is your only stated reason why astrology is phony.
      - krapp 7y ago
        >So this is your only stated reason why astrology is phony. Along with the links to at least two sites explaining multiple cross referenced arguments against it, yes. If you're really sincere about exploring the criticisms of astrology, a simple Google search on "debunking astrology" or similar would provide you with more material than you could likely read in a lifetime. If, however you choose to disregard the entire body of scientific thought and all observational evidence to the contrary as insufficient, then I suppose nothing can convince you, and this thread is a waste of everyone's time.
        jelliclesfarm 7y ago
        I don’t understand your hostility. I wish to study it and I think it will take me 3-5 years to even come up with an opinion. I assumed you had studied astrology and hence debunking it. If you have nothing except internet search results, your opinion that it is a pseudoscience is only as good as any layperson who believes in its validity. It is still intriguing enough for me to pursue it. It was part of my life as a child in India and I have heard arguments against it just like yours. Now I am old enough and have time/energy/inclination to explore what I find intriguing, I am going to find out for myself. This thread is for people who have opinions that they can articulate with some background. I thank you for the time you took to engage.
        krapp 7y ago
        >If you have nothing except internet search results, your opinion that it is a pseudoscience is only as good as any layperson who believes in its validity. Those internet search results would lead you to numerous articles and research done by experts in various scientific fields, but it seems you have yet to even bother to engage with them. The fact that people have been telling you the truth about astrology since you were a child, and you still give it credence, suggests your mind is already made up. You clearly believe in it, and are seeking validation for that belief, rather than objective truth. I promise you, you could find the same counter-arguments made in scientific journals as well, if you don't trust the internet, as I'm certain plenty of online sources will cite them. You could talk to any astronomer, physicist or psychologist in person and they will tell you the same thing. The opinion that astrology is a pseudoscience is not merely my own, it is the opinion of the entire scientific community. >This thread is for people who have opinions that they can articulate with some background. I've given you exactly what you've asked for, even better than my own personal opinion. Attempting to discredit or debunk me, personally, has no bearing on the truth. Its up to you to educate yourself.
  - mindcrime 7y ago
    So you are saying astrology is ‘phony’? Yes, that is what I'm saying. Can you change my mind? Almost certainly not. Nor is there any particular reason why I'd be interested in wasting my time in the effort. Believe whatever you want to believe, it's no skin off my back.
    - jelliclesfarm 7y ago
      Thanks. I am a little confused by the defensiveness exhibited by people when asked to explain skepticism towards astrology. If someone asked you to explain why you don’t think quantum computing will deliver solutions in the near term, there would be a barrage of responses from people who have a thread-like tenuous grasp on the subject. And yet, there is no intellectual curiosity about astrology. I found your response a tad defensive and hollow. But I do appreciate that you took the time to share your opinion.
      - mindcrime 7y ago
        When you so obviously already have your mind made up what you believe, there is absolutely no justification for me - or anybody else - to engage with you in an attempt to "change your mind". That's not an honest and open, intellectual discussion. Frankly, this post and all of your responses so far strike me as basically just moderately clever trolling.
        deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
        jelliclesfarm 7y ago
        Interesting. You still don’t have a convincing answer.
rraghur 7y ago
Since you asked :) - Nay!! (what's meh?) and you said it - it's a pseudo science... so why, even? If you hadn't said 'pseudo science', I'd have assumed you're a believer and that the question was in earnest. OTOH - you do end with 'old world knowledge' so I'm not sure anymore. but you're not asking that...I suppose what you're asking is akin to training an AI on two unrelated datasets and asking it to predict one based on other... sure - it's going to spit out some 'pattern recognition' where none exists. Basically, AI (or anything else) can't manufacture causality.
- jelliclesfarm 7y ago
  ‘Meh’ = ‘I don’t know.’ 1. Psychology is also considered pseudo science. The age old question about economics is whether it is science or art...some ..usually the cynical..settle on pseudo science. Pseudo science is a catch all term. I am reluctant to dismiss something that captures the attention of so many people..now and in the past. Many mathematicians were Astronomers as well as astrologists. When did astrology become the illegitimate bastard child of astronomy? Why? What about personality tests? What about algorithms? Google search algorithm is not a secret. It must be easy to reverse engineer it, but only a small percentage of the population who use google know how it works. For the rest of the layfolk, it is magic and for others, it’s something advanced enough that it’s beyond their comprehension. But nobody really believes or calls google search results = ‘divination’. Because we know and accept that it’s in the realm of mathematical possibility. Why not astrology too? 2. Can you explain a little more about AI part of your response. That’s what I want to understand. I can’t even articulate well what question I am thinking of..but I think if you expand upon that I might find the right words.
masonic 7y ago
Note that the traditional date/sign assignments don't even resemble the current calendar relationships. Most people were born with the sun a full sign off from what pop culture horoscopes say. Plus, for a bunch of those who think they are Scorpio, the sun was actually in Ophiuchus on their birthday.
- jelliclesfarm 7y ago
  I don’t know about that. I am planning on studying Vedic astrology or Indian Jyotish. It uses the sidereal zodiac which is based on the fixedness of the stars and is moon sign based rather than sun signs. They also have north and south nodes of the moon which are technically shadow planets as they don’t really exist but are only part of the moon.(in myth, they cause the eclipses) It’s an entirely different system. I am looking forward to learning and studying more. I want to do it right and expect it will take me 3-5 years as does any in-depth study of any subject. I haven’t decided how to go about it.

mindcrime 7y ago

Sure, you can parse over huge amounts of data and find all sorts of bogus "patterns" that don't actually mean anything[1][2]. But you can't make a valid science with real predictive power out of something where there is no actual causal connection between event A and event B. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spurious_correlation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spurious_correlation [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking

jelliclesfarm 7y ago
So you are saying astrology is ‘phony’? Learning Vedic astrology is my 2020 goal. I find it compelling enough to try to understand what is about...it’s something I have been looking into for 5-7 years and I am no longer skeptical about it. Can you change my mind? (Despite the awkward wording, it’s a sincere query)
- krapp 7y ago
  Yes, astrology is phony. It's nothing but confirmation bias, placebo effect, paredolia and fraud. There is no known physical mechanism by which astrology could possibly work. Its claims have been thoroughly and repeatedly debunked through experimentation, and the psychological biases which cause it to appear true are well known and documented[0,1]. Note that this applies to all forms of astrology. Doesn't matter if it's Indian, Greek, Babylonian or generated by algorithms - the thesis that astrological phenomena and star patterns have an influence on human personality, behavior or events is demonstrably and universally false. Please spend 2020 learning something of value, rather than continuing to be intrigued by meaningless nonsense. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology_and_science https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrology_and_science [1]https://www.relativelyinteresting.com/astrology-and-horoscopes-debunked/ https://www.relativelyinteresting.com/astrology-and-horoscop...
  - jelliclesfarm 7y ago
    [..] There is no known physical mechanism by which astrology could possibly work.[..] - So this is your only stated reason why astrology is phony.
    - krapp 7y ago
      >So this is your only stated reason why astrology is phony. Along with the links to at least two sites explaining multiple cross referenced arguments against it, yes. If you're really sincere about exploring the criticisms of astrology, a simple Google search on "debunking astrology" or similar would provide you with more material than you could likely read in a lifetime. If, however you choose to disregard the entire body of scientific thought and all observational evidence to the contrary as insufficient, then I suppose nothing can convince you, and this thread is a waste of everyone's time.
      - jelliclesfarm 7y ago
        I don’t understand your hostility. I wish to study it and I think it will take me 3-5 years to even come up with an opinion. I assumed you had studied astrology and hence debunking it. If you have nothing except internet search results, your opinion that it is a pseudoscience is only as good as any layperson who believes in its validity. It is still intriguing enough for me to pursue it. It was part of my life as a child in India and I have heard arguments against it just like yours. Now I am old enough and have time/energy/inclination to explore what I find intriguing, I am going to find out for myself. This thread is for people who have opinions that they can articulate with some background. I thank you for the time you took to engage.
        krapp 7y ago
        >If you have nothing except internet search results, your opinion that it is a pseudoscience is only as good as any layperson who believes in its validity. Those internet search results would lead you to numerous articles and research done by experts in various scientific fields, but it seems you have yet to even bother to engage with them. The fact that people have been telling you the truth about astrology since you were a child, and you still give it credence, suggests your mind is already made up. You clearly believe in it, and are seeking validation for that belief, rather than objective truth. I promise you, you could find the same counter-arguments made in scientific journals as well, if you don't trust the internet, as I'm certain plenty of online sources will cite them. You could talk to any astronomer, physicist or psychologist in person and they will tell you the same thing. The opinion that astrology is a pseudoscience is not merely my own, it is the opinion of the entire scientific community. >This thread is for people who have opinions that they can articulate with some background. I've given you exactly what you've asked for, even better than my own personal opinion. Attempting to discredit or debunk me, personally, has no bearing on the truth. Its up to you to educate yourself.
- mindcrime 7y ago
  So you are saying astrology is ‘phony’? Yes, that is what I'm saying. Can you change my mind? Almost certainly not. Nor is there any particular reason why I'd be interested in wasting my time in the effort. Believe whatever you want to believe, it's no skin off my back.
  - jelliclesfarm 7y ago
    Thanks. I am a little confused by the defensiveness exhibited by people when asked to explain skepticism towards astrology. If someone asked you to explain why you don’t think quantum computing will deliver solutions in the near term, there would be a barrage of responses from people who have a thread-like tenuous grasp on the subject. And yet, there is no intellectual curiosity about astrology. I found your response a tad defensive and hollow. But I do appreciate that you took the time to share your opinion.
    - mindcrime 7y ago
      When you so obviously already have your mind made up what you believe, there is absolutely no justification for me - or anybody else - to engage with you in an attempt to "change your mind". That's not an honest and open, intellectual discussion. Frankly, this post and all of your responses so far strike me as basically just moderately clever trolling.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
      - jelliclesfarm 7y ago
        Interesting. You still don’t have a convincing answer.

rraghur 7y ago

Since you asked :) - Nay!! (what's meh?) and you said it - it's a pseudo science... so why, even? If you hadn't said 'pseudo science', I'd have assumed you're a believer and that the question was in earnest. OTOH - you do end with 'old world knowledge' so I'm not sure anymore. but you're not asking that...I suppose what you're asking is akin to training an AI on two unrelated datasets and asking it to predict one based on other... sure - it's going to spit out some 'pattern recognition' where none exists. Basically, AI (or anything else) can't manufacture causality.

jelliclesfarm 7y ago
‘Meh’ = ‘I don’t know.’ 1. Psychology is also considered pseudo science. The age old question about economics is whether it is science or art...some ..usually the cynical..settle on pseudo science. Pseudo science is a catch all term. I am reluctant to dismiss something that captures the attention of so many people..now and in the past. Many mathematicians were Astronomers as well as astrologists. When did astrology become the illegitimate bastard child of astronomy? Why? What about personality tests? What about algorithms? Google search algorithm is not a secret. It must be easy to reverse engineer it, but only a small percentage of the population who use google know how it works. For the rest of the layfolk, it is magic and for others, it’s something advanced enough that it’s beyond their comprehension. But nobody really believes or calls google search results = ‘divination’. Because we know and accept that it’s in the realm of mathematical possibility. Why not astrology too? 2. Can you explain a little more about AI part of your response. That’s what I want to understand. I can’t even articulate well what question I am thinking of..but I think if you expand upon that I might find the right words.

masonic 7y ago

Note that the traditional date/sign assignments don't even resemble the current calendar relationships. Most people were born with the sun a full sign off from what pop culture horoscopes say. Plus, for a bunch of those who think they are Scorpio, the sun was actually in Ophiuchus on their birthday.

jelliclesfarm 7y ago
I don’t know about that. I am planning on studying Vedic astrology or Indian Jyotish. It uses the sidereal zodiac which is based on the fixedness of the stars and is moon sign based rather than sun signs. They also have north and south nodes of the moon which are technically shadow planets as they don’t really exist but are only part of the moon.(in myth, they cause the eclipses) It’s an entirely different system. I am looking forward to learning and studying more. I want to do it right and expect it will take me 3-5 years as does any in-depth study of any subject. I haven’t decided how to go about it.