I'd estimate for every 10 tech and gizmo fads, 6 die, 3 find a nice but small niche, and 1 takes off big. I'm ignoring those that may come back several decades

I'd estimate for every 10 tech and gizmo fads, 6 die, 3 find a nice but small niche, and 1 takes off big. I'm ignoring those that may come back several decades later, when surrounding technology catches up.