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Predicting weather and predicting climate are almost completely different things. It's about predicting where a single state space trajectory of a chaotic syste
by ants_a 7y ago
Predicting weather and predicting climate are almost completely different things. It's about predicting where a single state space trajectory of a chaotic system ends up versus predicting bounds and average positions for an ensemble of trajectories. The first is impossible, the second is routinely done. Think of a double pendulum, one can't predict where it is in an hour, but can predict reasonably accurately how high it can still go due to the amount of kinetic and potential energy it is going to have.