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Truth and Probability (1926) [pdf]
- anongraddebt 7y agoIt's sad that Ramsey died so young. It's also sad that it has taken nearly a century for the wider culture/society to begin embracing the concept of 'degrees of belief' in any significant way (I could definitely be wrong, but it seems to me that it is being embraced more). A number of public intellectuals have said probabilistic reasoning is king for the forseeable future (of course, such reasoning is a bit different from the ground being covered by degrees of belief). I know some professors who are even moving away from the emphasis on deductive reasoning in introductory logic courses.
- koheripbal 7y agoMy brief exposure to this was frustrated with the complex math involved in combining (adding/multiplying) probability distributions without simulations. Something so fundamental to making probabilistic choices is so immediately daughnting from a programmatic point of view
- anongraddebt 7y agoI bet with more exposure it would become more intuitive. I also think there is simply an immense benefit in the type of epistemological mindset it inculcates, regardless of how fast or adept you are at the mechanics.
- sixhobbits 7y agoI did a module in "philosophy of probability" and we covered this. At the beginning, I thought it was all people arguing about nothing in a lot of words, but after 3 weeks I realised that my assumptions that probability is a fairly 'rigid' field were way too strong and there is still so much that is not understood or controversial. This is a really interesting field and I would encourage anyone to make the effort to dive into it beyond the surface