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Anytime I try to pursue the UFO question I feel like I’m being intentionally gaslighted by government agencies. The public-ish analysis of UFOs, AATIP is an in

Anytime I try to pursue the UFO question I feel like I’m being intentionally gaslighted by government agencies. The public-ish analysis of UFOs, AATIP is an incredible farce. They focused on star trek warp drives and after the funding dried up they started hanging out with Blink 182 to smoke weed and pat each other on the back for being crazy alien believers. These aren’t sound scientific minds that are capable of analyzing the evidence available. Those people exist and I’m certain their analyses do as well, but no one gets to see them. I struggle to even come up with narratives as to why this specific case would be made public. Perhaps the intelligence agencies knew it wouldn’t be possible to cover up so the best they can do is release the evidence that was expected to make its way to the public and say nothing about it officially. If I put on a tinfoil hat I could say that the AATIP’s purpose was to instill doubt that aliens exist, but that would imply that they do exist. It seems that the intelligence agencies are behaving like they want to give as little information as possible about it. I can’t imagine the AATIP was made top-down. It appears to just be a congressman’s publicity stunt.

Jd 7y ago
Sometimes it has an easy explanation given typical information asymmetries and incentive structures. For example, you don't give away any of your external intel during a war (i.e. cold war) in the case that you are identifying something by your enemy that might be trying to hide from you. Letting them know you can detect them would be stupid. Also, for similar reasons, record and catalogue every strange phenomenon in case it could be something. The natural correlate from a citizen perspective is that the government is hiding something (i.e. UFOs). Of course it is, that's the point. But then the point becomes less of a point the less justification there is for wartime behavior, which then leads to increased speculation that the government is hiding something which at some points boils over into widespread public sentiment. Then at that point there is both incentive to do selective release and for the media to cover it since they know readers want to read about UFOs, etc. I think that's the Ockham's razor here.
- baybal2 7y ago
  I don't think one can cover just anything in an open society. Even the truly secret military gear like the original H-bomb, F-117, A-12, anti-powerline bombs, and navy stealth helicopter were impossible to hide completely. At least the fact of their existence was out long before the public saw them. Even in paranoid USSR, people knew of computer guided recon drones, spy sats, Shkvals, Dvinas, R73 and Strelas — all of which were more secret than the bomb, and were equally bordering on "sci-fi" and unbelievable to the layman at the time. The leak of Shkval's existence was of particular embarrassment to the Union's military and counterintelligence. Supposedly, there were less than 50 people in the whole Union who were privy to info on them in full, but even before it entered service it became an "urban myth" among civilians in military cities and such.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - narag 7y ago
    I don't think one can cover just anything in an open society. If you really want to apply common sense to the hypothesis that aliens are real and here, consider the possibility that aliens themselves have become much more careful since the fifties, just because they know we have more tech to detect and intercept them and governments are no longer able to hide anything. Or maybe they have a spy net on the ground already.
willis936 7y ago
To add onto this: Is this behavior reasonable for an alien species? I think so. It could be a probe to evaluate the behavior and technology of society on Earth. They could detect military response times, if they get greeted with missiles, hugs, or observations, etc. Keeping tabs on neighbors may be a good way to slowly initiate peaceful contact with another planet. Another question to ask ourselves is “how much evidence is enough to convince ourselves that aliens exist?” Namely: is this FLIR video enough?
scarejunba 7y ago
Haha, it looks like a classic case of enthusiasm being mistaken for competence. I can't imagine any reasonable agent would have chosen to work on this project so you only get the kooks.
criddell 7y ago
> I struggle to even come up with narratives as to why this specific case would be made public. Lots of people are talking about it. What's the problem with them also saying "yeah this happened and we have no idea what it is". It seems to me that the truth is probably exactly that.
rory096 7y ago
>If I put on a tinfoil hat I could say that the AATIP’s purpose was to instill doubt that aliens exist, but that would imply that they do exist. I thought it was well established that AATIP existed to be a means for a well-connected paranoid billionaire to have his senator funnel him millions in government contracts to keep his floundering mismanaged space hotel business afloat.

Jd 7y ago

Sometimes it has an easy explanation given typical information asymmetries and incentive structures. For example, you don't give away any of your external intel during a war (i.e. cold war) in the case that you are identifying something by your enemy that might be trying to hide from you. Letting them know you can detect them would be stupid. Also, for similar reasons, record and catalogue every strange phenomenon in case it could be something. The natural correlate from a citizen perspective is that the government is hiding something (i.e. UFOs). Of course it is, that's the point. But then the point becomes less of a point the less justification there is for wartime behavior, which then leads to increased speculation that the government is hiding something which at some points boils over into widespread public sentiment. Then at that point there is both incentive to do selective release and for the media to cover it since they know readers want to read about UFOs, etc. I think that's the Ockham's razor here.

baybal2 7y ago
I don't think one can cover just anything in an open society. Even the truly secret military gear like the original H-bomb, F-117, A-12, anti-powerline bombs, and navy stealth helicopter were impossible to hide completely. At least the fact of their existence was out long before the public saw them. Even in paranoid USSR, people knew of computer guided recon drones, spy sats, Shkvals, Dvinas, R73 and Strelas — all of which were more secret than the bomb, and were equally bordering on "sci-fi" and unbelievable to the layman at the time. The leak of Shkval's existence was of particular embarrassment to the Union's military and counterintelligence. Supposedly, there were less than 50 people in the whole Union who were privy to info on them in full, but even before it entered service it became an "urban myth" among civilians in military cities and such.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- narag 7y ago
  I don't think one can cover just anything in an open society. If you really want to apply common sense to the hypothesis that aliens are real and here, consider the possibility that aliens themselves have become much more careful since the fifties, just because they know we have more tech to detect and intercept them and governments are no longer able to hide anything. Or maybe they have a spy net on the ground already.

willis936 7y ago

To add onto this: Is this behavior reasonable for an alien species? I think so. It could be a probe to evaluate the behavior and technology of society on Earth. They could detect military response times, if they get greeted with missiles, hugs, or observations, etc. Keeping tabs on neighbors may be a good way to slowly initiate peaceful contact with another planet. Another question to ask ourselves is “how much evidence is enough to convince ourselves that aliens exist?” Namely: is this FLIR video enough?

scarejunba 7y ago

Haha, it looks like a classic case of enthusiasm being mistaken for competence. I can't imagine any reasonable agent would have chosen to work on this project so you only get the kooks.

criddell 7y ago

> I struggle to even come up with narratives as to why this specific case would be made public. Lots of people are talking about it. What's the problem with them also saying "yeah this happened and we have no idea what it is". It seems to me that the truth is probably exactly that.

rory096 7y ago

>If I put on a tinfoil hat I could say that the AATIP’s purpose was to instill doubt that aliens exist, but that would imply that they do exist. I thought it was well established that AATIP existed to be a means for a well-connected paranoid billionaire to have his senator funnel him millions in government contracts to keep his floundering mismanaged space hotel business afloat.