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> These articles keep claiming that high rents, mental illness and substance abuse are the causes of the homelessness surge. Zillow's research group looked at
by troydavis 7y ago
> These articles keep claiming that high rents, mental illness and substance abuse are the causes of the homelessness surge.
Zillow's research group looked at the correlation between rent (as a % of income) and homelessness rate. "Homelessness Rises Faster Where Rent Exceeds a Third of Income": https://www.zillow.com/research/homelessness-rent-affordability-22247/ https://www.zillow.com/research/homelessness-rent-affordabil...
That's not causality, but it's not nothing. In particular, they found two inflection points: "The first threshold is 22 percent: Any uptick in a community’s rent affordability beyond 22 percent translates into more people experiencing homelessness. The second threshold is 32 percent: Any increase in rent affordability beyond 32 percent leads to a faster-rising rate of homelessness."
Obviously both rent and income affect % spent on rent, but reducing or eliminating municipalities' bans on certain housing styles is far simpler than changing the supply of jobs.
(Full paper is "Inflection points in community-level homeless rates": https://wp.zillowstatic.com/3/Inflection_Points_20181213-ee1463.pdf https://wp.zillowstatic.com/3/Inflection_Points_20181213-ee1...)
- jetrink 7y agoSo 'rent affordability' here means percentage of income spent on rent? Higher affordability means higher rent/income, which means rent is less affordable. This is very confusing terminology.
- friedman23 7y agoIt is not confusing at all you've just put it backwards. High affordability means a low rent/income ratio.
- troydavis 7y agoIt's simpler than it sounds. "Rent affordability" is rent as a % of income. Going above 22% is associated with an increase in homelessness. Going above 32% is associated with a change in the rate of increase in homelessness (ie, not only does it rise, it goes up faster than it does from 22%-31%). Here's a graph: https://wp.zillowstatic.com/3/inflection-72aee4-1024x1024.png https://wp.zillowstatic.com/3/inflection-72aee4-1024x1024.pn...