4 ms·

Has humanity reached ‘peak intelligence’?

19 points by SQL2219 7y ago

Bostonian 7y ago
A recent paper finds that The Flynn effect for fluid IQ may not generalize to all ages or ability levels: A population-based study of 10,000 US adolescents https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2019-platt.pdf https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2019-platt.pdf . "IQs decreased 4.9 points for those with IQ ≤ 70 (95% CI = −4.9, −4.8), but increased 3.5 points among those with IQ ≥ 130 (95% CI = 3.4, 3.6)."
maestrokuro 7y ago
I feel like there's quite a lot scope for engineering the levels of intelligence within a given population. To my knowledge, most languages spoken throughout the world reached their current forms naturally, without any kind of deliberate influence by their speakers. What if, however, a language was actively designed to be as information dense as possible? What effect would it have on the average intelligence of a population in which said language was gradually introduced to the point where children were raised speaking it?
- justinclift 7y ago
  > What if, however, a language was actively designed to be as information dense as possible? Perhaps sound wouldn't be the right medium to carry it? Or alternatively, perhaps only those with <various> enhancements could transmit/receive it?
- mood_lines 7y ago
  The population would likely speak it slower to compensate. Information density and speech rate are inversely correlated, with an average information rate around 39 bits/second. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaaw2594 https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaaw2594
notjtrig 7y ago
This study says the Flynn effect has been reversing for starting in the birth year 1975. https://www.pnas.org/content/115/26/6674 https://www.pnas.org/content/115/26/6674
- AlecSchueler 7y ago
  From the 70s-2000 there was considerably more led in the atmosphere than before/after which I've seen linked to increased rates of e.g. violent crimes globally during that period. I suspect that the reversal of the Flynn effect during that time is also related and we will see the reverse of the reverse from kids born since the 00
  - perl4ever 7y ago
    Huh? The late 70s was when lead was banned in a lot of stuff. And you can see the higher violent crime in countries that used lead longer, like say Venezuela. So, yeah, everybody knows about the linkage, but it should make you stop and consider that it would make you expect the opposite of the claim above.
rowanG077 7y ago
Not likely. We aren't even trying to reach 'Peak intelligence'.
- JohnBooty 7y ago
  I believe "peak" in this context means "the highest point we will ever reach," not "the highest point this species might theoretically be capable of."
aaron695 7y ago
There are a billion people who's childrens IQ are being permanently reduced from lack of infant nutrients. You have many billions of people alive who have had this happened to them. Then toss in the other things that reduce IQ post infancy. Lot of scope for worldwide improvement. Looking at the top countries is a different important. But understanding the Flynn effect would be step one which isn't happening. There don't even seem to be any theories. When you can't even find crackpots YouTube talking about it, there's an issue.
perl4ever 7y ago
I suspect we're in the process of exponentially increasing the selection pressure on intelligence, because of the pervasive use of computers/AI/ML to exploit consumers.
- JohnBooty 7y ago
  The sophistication of consumer exploitation is increasing, no doubt! However, I can't fathom this having an evolutionary impact. It is awfully difficult to fail so hard at being a consumer that you don't make it to your reproductive years, right?
  - perl4ever 7y ago
    Sometimes people think of evolution as a binary thing - you reproduce or you don't. But a few generations on, some people leave huge numbers of descendants and some don't. There isn't a huge variance in the number of children people have, but that gets multiplied for grandchildren, and again for great-grandchildren...so the scale is not 0 to 1 (or 2 or 3), but 0 to <big number>. I wouldn't make any sweeping statements a priori about how economic inequality affects that, but if some people have all their resources vacuumed up and some don't, it's going to affect their lives on average somehow.
derp_dee_derp 7y ago
Yes, we've removed most evolutionary pressures so we are kinda just drifting aimlessly.
boyadjian 7y ago
That is an interesting question. I think that intelligence of human being is limited by sexual behavior. Our instinct of reproduction has the consequence that people willing the most to reproduce themselves become a majority, but these are not necessary the most intelligent. Yes, I think that peak intelligence have been reached. We see that the way countries are led : Often, decisions made to be popular, but not very effective on the long term.
- pg_is_a_butt 7y ago
  Is water wet? Do you also think that is an interesting question? If there are still questions of any kind, intelligence could not have peaked.

19 points by SQL2219 7y ago

A recent paper finds that The Flynn effect for fluid IQ may not generalize to all ages or ability levels: A population-based study of 10,000 US adolescents https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2019-platt.pdf https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2019-platt.pdf . "IQs decreased 4.9 points for those with IQ ≤ 70 (95% CI = −4.9, −4.8), but increased 3.5 points among those with IQ ≥ 130 (95% CI = 3.4, 3.6)."

maestrokuro 7y ago

I feel like there's quite a lot scope for engineering the levels of intelligence within a given population. To my knowledge, most languages spoken throughout the world reached their current forms naturally, without any kind of deliberate influence by their speakers. What if, however, a language was actively designed to be as information dense as possible? What effect would it have on the average intelligence of a population in which said language was gradually introduced to the point where children were raised speaking it?

justinclift 7y ago
> What if, however, a language was actively designed to be as information dense as possible? Perhaps sound wouldn't be the right medium to carry it? Or alternatively, perhaps only those with <various> enhancements could transmit/receive it?
mood_lines 7y ago
The population would likely speak it slower to compensate. Information density and speech rate are inversely correlated, with an average information rate around 39 bits/second. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaaw2594 https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaaw2594

notjtrig 7y ago

This study says the Flynn effect has been reversing for starting in the birth year 1975. https://www.pnas.org/content/115/26/6674 https://www.pnas.org/content/115/26/6674

AlecSchueler 7y ago
From the 70s-2000 there was considerably more led in the atmosphere than before/after which I've seen linked to increased rates of e.g. violent crimes globally during that period. I suspect that the reversal of the Flynn effect during that time is also related and we will see the reverse of the reverse from kids born since the 00
- perl4ever 7y ago
  Huh? The late 70s was when lead was banned in a lot of stuff. And you can see the higher violent crime in countries that used lead longer, like say Venezuela. So, yeah, everybody knows about the linkage, but it should make you stop and consider that it would make you expect the opposite of the claim above.

rowanG077 7y ago

Not likely. We aren't even trying to reach 'Peak intelligence'.

JohnBooty 7y ago
I believe "peak" in this context means "the highest point we will ever reach," not "the highest point this species might theoretically be capable of."

aaron695 7y ago

There are a billion people who's childrens IQ are being permanently reduced from lack of infant nutrients. You have many billions of people alive who have had this happened to them. Then toss in the other things that reduce IQ post infancy. Lot of scope for worldwide improvement. Looking at the top countries is a different important. But understanding the Flynn effect would be step one which isn't happening. There don't even seem to be any theories. When you can't even find crackpots YouTube talking about it, there's an issue.

perl4ever 7y ago

I suspect we're in the process of exponentially increasing the selection pressure on intelligence, because of the pervasive use of computers/AI/ML to exploit consumers.

JohnBooty 7y ago
The sophistication of consumer exploitation is increasing, no doubt! However, I can't fathom this having an evolutionary impact. It is awfully difficult to fail so hard at being a consumer that you don't make it to your reproductive years, right?
- perl4ever 7y ago
  Sometimes people think of evolution as a binary thing - you reproduce or you don't. But a few generations on, some people leave huge numbers of descendants and some don't. There isn't a huge variance in the number of children people have, but that gets multiplied for grandchildren, and again for great-grandchildren...so the scale is not 0 to 1 (or 2 or 3), but 0 to <big number>. I wouldn't make any sweeping statements a priori about how economic inequality affects that, but if some people have all their resources vacuumed up and some don't, it's going to affect their lives on average somehow.

derp_dee_derp 7y ago

Yes, we've removed most evolutionary pressures so we are kinda just drifting aimlessly.

boyadjian 7y ago

That is an interesting question. I think that intelligence of human being is limited by sexual behavior. Our instinct of reproduction has the consequence that people willing the most to reproduce themselves become a majority, but these are not necessary the most intelligent. Yes, I think that peak intelligence have been reached. We see that the way countries are led : Often, decisions made to be popular, but not very effective on the long term.

pg_is_a_butt 7y ago
Is water wet? Do you also think that is an interesting question? If there are still questions of any kind, intelligence could not have peaked.