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No, the Higgs was considered the most probable thing the LHC could find, including the null result of "nothing". People are always going to be skeptical of part
by jessriedel 7y ago
No, the Higgs was considered the most probable thing the LHC could find, including the null result of "nothing". People are always going to be skeptical of particular measurements because this stuff is so tricky and the incentives are huge for discoveries, but the prior of experts was that the Higgs would exist.
- thefringthing 7y agoI studied the philosophy of science a bit in university and one of my professors did some work on reactions in the scientific community to the Higgs boson discovery. I remember her remarking about how "this is a huge discovery" and "we knew we would see this; it's not a big deal" narratives were popular simultaneously.
- jessriedel 7y agoI don't actually think those narratives are in strong tension, especially if each were stated precisely. In short, "surprisal" is not the sole measure of importance for a scientific discovery.