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It may make perfect sense psychologically to do that, but it accomplishes nothing for you. Some people may do things like this, but those things tend to cancel

It may make perfect sense psychologically to do that, but it accomplishes nothing for you. Some people may do things like this, but those things tend to cancel out. They aren't general tendencies, they are just individual quirks. Also, why would it come down to 72 or 76? It's not going to bounce around like that, it will converge on a center value. Regardless, it would make no sense for you to pick anything other than your preferred value. Any value you pick is going to move it the same amount (if it moves it at all). And if you pick 72 when you prefer 70, you are taking a risk of your moving the result in the opposite direction of where you want it to go (as would be the case if the median was around 71) "But there would be benefit in converging the votes on popular numbers to make them the median." "Popular numbers" don't matter with a numerical vote like this. We aren't voting for discrete "candidate values". Again, the best strategy is to vote for you preferred value, full stop. Trying to guess how others are voting would accomplish exactly nothing. It is very different from presidential votes where it may well be wasting your vote to vote for who you actually want. All of the things you say apply there. This is not that.

hirundo 7y ago
> It's not going to bounce around like that, it will converge on a center value. There's no reason for temperature preference to form a normal distribution. In fact I'd think that sexual dimorphism would generate a bimodal distribution at a minimum. Women tend to prefer it warmer than men. That's an incentive for two parties at least. Any form of syndication will fracture the normal distribution, and we are political animals. We frequently vote at odds with our own interests in politics. I would expect the same behavior when voting to set the thermostat.
- robbrown451 7y ago
  It doesn't need to have a normal distribution for this to work. And there is no incentive for parties to form even if it was a 100% polarized electorate. However, let's imagine a slightly more realistic case where 45% of the room prefers exactly 65 degrees, 46% prefers exactly 75 degrees, and the other 9% are evenly spread in the in-between range. That's far from a normal distribution curves, it is two big spikes and a very low area connecting them. The median preference is probably going to be around 70/71. A reasonable middle ground. The only way it won't arrive at that result is if people are consistently acting against their own interests. If people attempt to get strategic about it, and form parties and agree to vote in a particular way, it won't change the result at all. I'm not sure where you are thinking these incentives come from, but I'm saying they don't exist. What is the incentive for an individual voter of doing anything other than voting for their exact preference? If you are one of those closer to the middle, preferring, say, 72 degrees, your vote will have exactly as much upward pull if you vote for 72 compared to voting for 75. Joining the 75 party doesn't help you (but it potentially hurts you, if you were wrong about the median being lower than your preference). I'll refer again to this, where I built a demonstration app you can play with, or you can just watch the video. If you want it done with polarized distribution, let me know. (it would be easy to hack it to do so) https://pianop.ly/voting/median.html https://pianop.ly/voting/median.html
  - hirundo 7y ago
    > 45% of the room prefers exactly 65 degrees, 46% prefers exactly 75 degrees, and the other 9% are evenly spread in the in-between range ... The median preference is probably going to be around 70/71. That does not sound right. The average would be around 70/71 but the median would be 75. So instead of a moderate compromise, 46% of the room would be happy and (at least) 45% unhappy.
    - robbrown451 7y ago
      No, the median is the 50 percentile. That falls in that 9% that lie between the cold natured people (0 through 45 percentile) and the warm natured people (54 through 99 percentile). So if there are 100 people, 45 like 65 degrees, and 46 like 75 degrees. Then -- assuming they are truly spread evenly in between as I said -- the other nine would be: One person prefers 66 degrees, one person prefers 67 degrees, one person prefers 68 degrees, one person prefers 69 degrees, one person prefers 70 degrees, one person prefers 71 degrees, one person prefers 72 degrees, one person prefers 73 degrees, and one person prefers 74 degrees. The median will be 70.5, since the 50 percentile falls between 70 and 71. Now if I am the 101st person, I can move it to 70 degrees by voting for 70 or less, and move it to 71 degrees by voting for 71 or greater. If I vote for any fractional number between 70 and 71, I will get my exact choice, since I will be the 50 percentile voter. There is no reason I can get better results by lying, whether or not I am good at guessing how others will vote.

hirundo 7y ago

> It's not going to bounce around like that, it will converge on a center value. There's no reason for temperature preference to form a normal distribution. In fact I'd think that sexual dimorphism would generate a bimodal distribution at a minimum. Women tend to prefer it warmer than men. That's an incentive for two parties at least. Any form of syndication will fracture the normal distribution, and we are political animals. We frequently vote at odds with our own interests in politics. I would expect the same behavior when voting to set the thermostat.

robbrown451 7y ago
It doesn't need to have a normal distribution for this to work. And there is no incentive for parties to form even if it was a 100% polarized electorate. However, let's imagine a slightly more realistic case where 45% of the room prefers exactly 65 degrees, 46% prefers exactly 75 degrees, and the other 9% are evenly spread in the in-between range. That's far from a normal distribution curves, it is two big spikes and a very low area connecting them. The median preference is probably going to be around 70/71. A reasonable middle ground. The only way it won't arrive at that result is if people are consistently acting against their own interests. If people attempt to get strategic about it, and form parties and agree to vote in a particular way, it won't change the result at all. I'm not sure where you are thinking these incentives come from, but I'm saying they don't exist. What is the incentive for an individual voter of doing anything other than voting for their exact preference? If you are one of those closer to the middle, preferring, say, 72 degrees, your vote will have exactly as much upward pull if you vote for 72 compared to voting for 75. Joining the 75 party doesn't help you (but it potentially hurts you, if you were wrong about the median being lower than your preference). I'll refer again to this, where I built a demonstration app you can play with, or you can just watch the video. If you want it done with polarized distribution, let me know. (it would be easy to hack it to do so) https://pianop.ly/voting/median.html https://pianop.ly/voting/median.html
- hirundo 7y ago
  > 45% of the room prefers exactly 65 degrees, 46% prefers exactly 75 degrees, and the other 9% are evenly spread in the in-between range ... The median preference is probably going to be around 70/71. That does not sound right. The average would be around 70/71 but the median would be 75. So instead of a moderate compromise, 46% of the room would be happy and (at least) 45% unhappy.
  - robbrown451 7y ago
    No, the median is the 50 percentile. That falls in that 9% that lie between the cold natured people (0 through 45 percentile) and the warm natured people (54 through 99 percentile). So if there are 100 people, 45 like 65 degrees, and 46 like 75 degrees. Then -- assuming they are truly spread evenly in between as I said -- the other nine would be: One person prefers 66 degrees, one person prefers 67 degrees, one person prefers 68 degrees, one person prefers 69 degrees, one person prefers 70 degrees, one person prefers 71 degrees, one person prefers 72 degrees, one person prefers 73 degrees, and one person prefers 74 degrees. The median will be 70.5, since the 50 percentile falls between 70 and 71. Now if I am the 101st person, I can move it to 70 degrees by voting for 70 or less, and move it to 71 degrees by voting for 71 or greater. If I vote for any fractional number between 70 and 71, I will get my exact choice, since I will be the 50 percentile voter. There is no reason I can get better results by lying, whether or not I am good at guessing how others will vote.