The major difference between midterms and election (whether 2016 or 2020) is that Trump himself wasn’t on the ballot to drive turnout. In fact, it’s not unusual

The major difference between midterms and election (whether 2016 or 2020) is that Trump himself wasn’t on the ballot to drive turnout. In fact, it’s not unusual at all for midterms to swing away from the incumbent’s party, like they did in 2018. I don’t want to get too much into political speculation on HN, but Trump is a big turnout driver due to the enthusiasm of his base. If the democratic nominee comes from the current candidates, and something crazy doesn’t happen vis a vis a brokered convention or economic recession, I’d say Trump will probably be re-elected. It will be due primarily to that enthusiasm, but also to independents who may not like the guy, but are happy with the economy and scared of/angry at the Democratic Party. According to most oddsmakers, Trump is currently the favorite to win. Granted that may change when the Democrats select a candidate.