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I'm sure Google or other mega tech company with enough money will do so within 20 years. Big Aero has left too many promising radical ideas on the table, they a

I'm sure Google or other mega tech company with enough money will do so within 20 years. Big Aero has left too many promising radical ideas on the table, they always publish some half-hearted studies (blended-wing body, various once-off supersonic platforms) while sticking with the standard subsonic tube+wings configuration that is 50 years old. The main barrier to entry is massive initial capital, for the army of lawyers to handle lawsuits and the FAA redtape, and the huge number of engineers and manufacturing staff that you need from the start for rigorous engineering. Stakes are much higher when people can die, even Icon Aircraft has had two fatalities and they have a really solid team of mostly Scaled alums.

themagician 7y ago
There's no big conspiracy here. Passenger planes have actually gotten SLOWER over the last 20 years because it's more cost efficient. Supersonic flight is fun, but borderline nonsensical. The cost is outrageous, it's incredibly inefficient, and the damage to the environment and local ecosystems is terrible. Supersonic flight is the future for the 1% who can afford it and don't care about the costs they don't have to bear. Honestly, I'd rather see Zeppelins come back before supersonic planes.
- ghaff 7y ago
  The costs and efficiency can probably be improved. But I still agree it would be for the <1%. Probably a more rarified offering for those who buy whatever the highest class seats are in a plane today. Say $5-10K for a NY to London flight in all probability.
  - schoen 7y ago
    Wikipedia says about Concorde: > For example, in 1997, the round-trip ticket price from New York to London was $7,995 ($12.5 thousand in 2018 dollars), more than 30 times the cost of the cheapest option to fly this route. I just did a search for this route in January in first class for comparison and saw various options mostly starting around $6000 (round trip), which is similar to your estimate. I'm sure there are reasons people would often pay more to fly that route in first class.
    - osivertsson 7y ago
      There is always going to be a market of people wanting the very best and fastest stuff since it conveys status no matter how little sense it makes. And as an engineer I bet it can be a very satisfying environmemt to work in with less compromises for legacy and economic reasons. But the problem with long flights today is not the time on the flight which would make supersonic travel worth it. The real work should be put into optimizing the slowest step of my journey instead. Like being stuck in traffic to and from airport, the time it takes at the airport for security and to get passengers onboard, taxing to runway for 20 minutes, and waiting in queue of airplanes for take-off slot. Also even in business class or first class there is horrible noise that makes me super-tired and I am expected to mostly just sit around and feel that free booze will make up for the lousy environment. Give me an onboard gym, showers, less noise, proper air onboard, proper sleep compartments suitable for people being 2m tall and where I can shut myself in and not be disturbed by other pax or crew.
      - ghaff 7y ago
        I guess opinions vary. Give me the best lie-flat seating that gives me undisturbed (and undisturbing) access to the restroom and I'm pretty good. Some 1st class configs also give a greater level of privacy. An 18 hour flight is long and boring and I suppose an old-fashioned 747 lounge would be nice but I really have no interest in a gym/shower. (And honestly gym options on a plane seem pretty problematic.) If I had that space to play with personally, it would definitely be a nice cocktail lounge/dining area rather than a gym. Maybe if this were something I was doing all the time but as a sometimes event, comfortable sleeping and entertainment options (which I can mostly handle by myself at this point) work pretty well.
      - mantap 7y ago
        Wear good noise cancelling headphones and earplugs at the same time. I haven't noticed any crying babies for years. It's glorious.
    - ghaff 7y ago
      That delta sounds exaggerated. As I recall, the Concorde was some premium (like 30%) over first class. Which was clearly a significant premium over coach. But 30x for a reasonable comparison seems very large. I can certainly believe a typical economy ticket being 2K in today's dollars given that it's often close to $1K now. (Yes, you can find cheaper flight but that's a pretty typical airfare on a major carrier today.)
ummonk 7y ago
>even Icon Aircraft has had two fatalities and they have a really solid team of mostly Scaled alums. Well, Scaled / Virgin Galactic has had its own fatalities, so...
deepnotderp 7y ago
Eh, it's a bit more nuanced than that to be honest. Blended-wing body is good, but the total gain after structural reinforcement, increased materials, friction drag etc. is probably not quite as high as you might think.

themagician 7y ago

There's no big conspiracy here. Passenger planes have actually gotten SLOWER over the last 20 years because it's more cost efficient. Supersonic flight is fun, but borderline nonsensical. The cost is outrageous, it's incredibly inefficient, and the damage to the environment and local ecosystems is terrible. Supersonic flight is the future for the 1% who can afford it and don't care about the costs they don't have to bear. Honestly, I'd rather see Zeppelins come back before supersonic planes.

ghaff 7y ago
The costs and efficiency can probably be improved. But I still agree it would be for the <1%. Probably a more rarified offering for those who buy whatever the highest class seats are in a plane today. Say $5-10K for a NY to London flight in all probability.
- schoen 7y ago
  Wikipedia says about Concorde: > For example, in 1997, the round-trip ticket price from New York to London was $7,995 ($12.5 thousand in 2018 dollars), more than 30 times the cost of the cheapest option to fly this route. I just did a search for this route in January in first class for comparison and saw various options mostly starting around $6000 (round trip), which is similar to your estimate. I'm sure there are reasons people would often pay more to fly that route in first class.
  - osivertsson 7y ago
    There is always going to be a market of people wanting the very best and fastest stuff since it conveys status no matter how little sense it makes. And as an engineer I bet it can be a very satisfying environmemt to work in with less compromises for legacy and economic reasons. But the problem with long flights today is not the time on the flight which would make supersonic travel worth it. The real work should be put into optimizing the slowest step of my journey instead. Like being stuck in traffic to and from airport, the time it takes at the airport for security and to get passengers onboard, taxing to runway for 20 minutes, and waiting in queue of airplanes for take-off slot. Also even in business class or first class there is horrible noise that makes me super-tired and I am expected to mostly just sit around and feel that free booze will make up for the lousy environment. Give me an onboard gym, showers, less noise, proper air onboard, proper sleep compartments suitable for people being 2m tall and where I can shut myself in and not be disturbed by other pax or crew.
    - ghaff 7y ago
      I guess opinions vary. Give me the best lie-flat seating that gives me undisturbed (and undisturbing) access to the restroom and I'm pretty good. Some 1st class configs also give a greater level of privacy. An 18 hour flight is long and boring and I suppose an old-fashioned 747 lounge would be nice but I really have no interest in a gym/shower. (And honestly gym options on a plane seem pretty problematic.) If I had that space to play with personally, it would definitely be a nice cocktail lounge/dining area rather than a gym. Maybe if this were something I was doing all the time but as a sometimes event, comfortable sleeping and entertainment options (which I can mostly handle by myself at this point) work pretty well.
    - mantap 7y ago
      Wear good noise cancelling headphones and earplugs at the same time. I haven't noticed any crying babies for years. It's glorious.
  - ghaff 7y ago
    That delta sounds exaggerated. As I recall, the Concorde was some premium (like 30%) over first class. Which was clearly a significant premium over coach. But 30x for a reasonable comparison seems very large. I can certainly believe a typical economy ticket being 2K in today's dollars given that it's often close to $1K now. (Yes, you can find cheaper flight but that's a pretty typical airfare on a major carrier today.)

ummonk 7y ago

>even Icon Aircraft has had two fatalities and they have a really solid team of mostly Scaled alums. Well, Scaled / Virgin Galactic has had its own fatalities, so...

deepnotderp 7y ago

Eh, it's a bit more nuanced than that to be honest. Blended-wing body is good, but the total gain after structural reinforcement, increased materials, friction drag etc. is probably not quite as high as you might think.