4 ms·

What would be really interesting in light of what you say is repeat performance Well, then you get fooled by randomness in a completely different way: You begi

What would be really interesting in light of what you say is repeat performance Well, then you get fooled by randomness in a completely different way: You begin to believe that the ability to succeed from scratch is a much rarer skill than it actually is, because (a) only a subset of the potentially-successful people ever succeed, by whatever measure, and (b) only a smaller subset of those ever bother to try to succeed again; and (c) only an even smaller subset of subset (b) ever succeed a second time. But you don't really need to find a serial performer. You only need to find someone who can succeed once, and there are more of the latter than there are of the former, by definition. It's no knock on Bill Gates that, having founded one incredibly successful company, he didn't quit and try to start a different one just to "prove" that he had the knack. Zuckerberg should not be ashamed that, having found himself holding one tiger by the tail, he doesn't feel inclined to shop around for a different tiger.

Vivtek 16y ago
You only need to find someone who can succeed once, the problem being that that once has to be your time.
fauigerzigerk 16y ago
Those are all valid points. However, I do believe that there are patterns of success and, by definition, patterns are characterized by some sort of repetition. Looking for patterns in someone can increase the odds of finding the right person. I don't deny at all that doing this probably excludes a lot of very qualified people, most importantly it excludes me from my own startup ;-)
seigenblues 16y ago
to the contrary, some of the High-Net-Worth individuals i've had the misfortune to interact with have a much greater interest in succeeding more than once -- especially the ones who are more self-aware than usual. I think they want to prove that the first time wasn't a fluke, usually to themselves!

Vivtek 16y ago

You only need to find someone who can succeed once, the problem being that that once has to be your time.

fauigerzigerk 16y ago

Those are all valid points. However, I do believe that there are patterns of success and, by definition, patterns are characterized by some sort of repetition. Looking for patterns in someone can increase the odds of finding the right person. I don't deny at all that doing this probably excludes a lot of very qualified people, most importantly it excludes me from my own startup ;-)

seigenblues 16y ago

to the contrary, some of the High-Net-Worth individuals i've had the misfortune to interact with have a much greater interest in succeeding more than once -- especially the ones who are more self-aware than usual. I think they want to prove that the first time wasn't a fluke, usually to themselves!