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Humans have quite a history of trying to keep the sea out of their land, and that history has plenty of big failures. It all goes well until it doesn't, and th
by blunte 7y ago
Humans have quite a history of trying to keep the sea out of their land, and that history has plenty of big failures. It all goes well until it doesn't, and then it's a big deal.
It doesn't require speculation to recognize this pattern, even if we can't predict the failure events accurately.
- the-dude 7y agoDo you have any specific examples of this ? ( I know of the 1953 flood, a combination of high tide and storm ). But if there is plenty, I really would want to know.
- yread 7y agoUh, are you asking for examples of flooding? Consider this: Delta Works and the rest of ocean polders are built to withstand something like 5m above mean sea level. Katrina caused a storm surge 8.5m above mean sea level. Granted, North Sea isn't quite like Gulf of Mexico (yet) But there is absolutely a chance that a storm comes next year that would breach it
- the-dude 7y ago> Uh, are you asking for examples of flooding? No I was asking for plenty of big failures, as claimed You are just speculating.
- jacquesm 7y agoThere is a chance that such a storm could happen tomorrow. But the chance is a very slim one and since the Delta works the rivers have been a much bigger problem than the see. The worst possible conditions for Zeeland/Zuid Holland would be springtide, storm, the initial sea level would be relatively unimportant. The problem is that the wind drives that water ahead of it and will cause the water to rise up because it can't flow away fast enough, in part because the channel is constricted to the South, in part because such storms typically come from the South West aiming directly at the weak spot in the shore defenses. Hence the Delta Works and the storm surge protection near Rotterdam (which is an absolutely amazing work of engineering by the way): https://www.google.com/maps/search/stormvloedkering+google+maps/@51.9544683,4.1580609,1513m/data=!3m1!1e3 https://www.google.com/maps/search/stormvloedkering+google+m... The scale of that thing might not be readily apparent but think of it as two Eiffel towers on their side that can move to close off the river.
- blunte 7y agoIn the Netherlands, no. But it's a small country with a small coast (relative to other countries), and it's in a part of the continent that has thus far not experienced much in the way of severe storms. That is changing as the weather patterns become more volatile. But here's a simple scenario. Earthquakes in the Groningen region (caused by natural gas drilling and extraction), have become a new and significant problem. Let's say one or a series of earthquakes happens to coincide with an unusual North Sea storm event - one which includes high winds. You'll have a combination of stresses and forces that may exceed the capabilities of some dikes. And small failures could result in other stresses in other places which could lead to other failures. If you read about some of the great catastrophes in the modern age, they often involve a chain of small events which result in a scenario that was either not predicted or was deemed too low chance to be concerned with.
- the-dude 7y agoI was asking for examples of 'plenty of big failures'. You are just speculating.
- markvdb 7y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saeftinghe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saeftinghe